The Coming Electorate: 1965-1970
| Published date | 01 September 1960 |
| Author | Charles R. Nixon |
| DOI | 10.1177/106591296001300305 |
| Date | 01 September 1960 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
620
THE
COMING
ELECTORATE:
1965-1970
CHARLES
R.
NIXON
University
of
California,
Los
Angeles
HE
PATTERN
OF
POWER
in
our
society
is
frequently
examined
in
terms
of
the
making
of
great
decisions.
Attention
is
directed
at
those
JL
points
in
our
organizational
structures
where
decisions
are
made,
the
character
of
the
men
who
make
them,
and
the
considerations
which
influence
their
judgments.
This
attention
to
the
&dquo;decision-makers,&dquo;
though
useful
and
necessary,
is
not
by
itself
a
sufficient
focus
for
viewing
the
underlying
trends
in
the
American
power
structure,
for
one
major
factor
in
the
exercise
of
power
is
public
opinion.
As
Richard
Rovere
has
recently
pointed
out
in
his
analysis
of
the
decision
not
to
intervene
in
French
Indochina
to
relieve
the
siege
of
Dienbienphu,
even
when
the
consensus
of
the
top
&dquo;decision-makers&dquo;
was
in
favor
of
intervention
in
order
to
protect
what
were
viewed
as
our
national
interests,
the
awareness
that
public
opinion
was
basically
hostile
to
such
a
move,
and
that
such
a
move
would
jeop-
ardize
the
political
base
of
the
administration,
proved
ultimately
to
be
the
con-
trolling
consideration.’
We
did
not
intervene!
In
our
political
system
public
opinion
is
a
potent
factor
in
even
the
top
criti-
cal
decisions
because
a
major
touchstone
of
power
is
the
ability
to
command
votes.
Where
votes
lie,
and
what
interests
they
will
support
are
therefore
im-
portant
considerations
in
any
attempt
to
assess
the
major
developments
in
the
pattern
of
political
power.
Because
there
is
a
significant
correlation
between
the
way
votes
are
cast
and
certain
identifiable
characteristics
of
the
voting
population,
it is
possible
to
foresee
coming
changes
in
the
pattern
of
political
power
by
exam-
ining
changes
in
its
population
base.
Certain
charateristics
of
the
population
a
decade
hence,
1965-70,
are
predictable,
and
on
the
basis
of
these
characteristics,
and
their
political
correlates,
we
can
estimate
changes
which
are
taking
place
in
the
foundations
on
which
political
power
is
built.
These
changes
can
be
viewed
as
geographical
shifts
which
will
influence
the
distribution
of
power
in
Congress
and
the
electoral
college,
and
changes
in
the
social
characteristics
of
the
population
which
will
influence
its
political
behavior.
Attention
here
is
directed
to
the
character
of
these
changes,
and
to
some
of
the
political
conse-
quences
which
are
likely
to
follow
from
them.
CONGRESS
AND
THE
ELECTORAL
COLLEGE
On
the
basis
of
its
predictions
of
the
population
of
1960,
the
Bureau
of
the
Census
has
estimated
what
the
probable
apportionment
of
the
435
seats
in
the
House
of
Representatives
will
be
for
the
period
1965-70.2
It
estimates
that
19
1
Richard
Rovere,
"The
Interlocking
Overlappers,"
The
Progressive,
XX
(June,
1956),
33-35.
2
"Projected
Reapportionment
of
Number
of
Congressmen
by
States,"
Current
Population
Reports:
Population
Estimates,
Series
P-25,
No.
198,
March
26,
1959.
U.S.
Department
of
Commerce,
Bureau
of
the
Census.
621
seats
will
change,
and
18
states
in
addition
to
Alaska
and
Hawaii
will
be
affected
by
the
changes.
States
which
will
gain
or
lose
seats
are
as
follows:
All
other
states
will
retain
their
present
representation.
Similar
gains
and
losses
will
take
place
in
the
allocation
of
votes
in
the
electoral
college.
Among
the
most
powerful
states,
the
rank
order
is
not
changed.
It
will
still
be
New
York,
California,
Pennsylvania.
But
California’s
relative
position
is
definitely
changed.
At
present
California
has
thirteen
seats
less
than
New
York
and
the
same
number
as
Pennsylvania.
In the
period
1965-70,
California
will
have
only
three
seats
less
than
New
York
but
ten
more
than
Pennsylvania.
The
change
in
the
regional
distribution
of
population
from
1950
to
1960
is
in
line
with,
rather
than
contrary
to,
the
long-run
trends
of
population
change
which
have been
going
on
during
the
major
course
of
this
century.
This
trend
is
one
in
which
the
Northeast
and
North-Central
regions
have
been
steadily
los-
ing
population
to
the
West,
while
the
South
on
the
whole
has
been
holding
its
own.
A
detailed
breakdown
of
these
gains
and
losses
by
regions
and
divisions
is
provided
in
Table
I.
It
should
be
noted
that
the
picture
of
southern
stability
is
even
greater
in
the
political
South
defined
as
the
Confederate
states
(excluding
Tennessee).
Among
these,
Virginia
and
Louisiana
have
undergone
no
changes
in
their
relative
popula-
tion
position,
while
substantial
gains
in
Florida
and
Texas,
and
a
slight
gain
in
North
Carolina
offset
the
losses
suffered
by
the
other
six
states,
so
that
over
the
forty-year
period
there
is
a
net
gain
of
three
seats
among
these
states
of
the
for-
mer
Confederacy.
Of
the
six
border
states
(including
Tennessee),
however,
all
but
Maryland
have
lost
in
population,
and
the
net
loss
for
the
group
is
eleven
seats
over
the
forty-year
period.
This
shift
in
the
number
of
seats
held
in
the
House
of
Representatives
and
in
the
electoral
college
has
wide
ramifications.
Though
the
specific
impact
at
various
points
in
our
political
system
may
seem
to
be
relatively
small,
and
is
certainly
difficult
to
measure,
nonetheless
it is
possible
to
identify
the
points
in
the
political
system
which
are
affected
by
these
particular
changes,
and
to
note
To continue reading
Request your trial