The coming challenge for defense.

• Author: Farrell, Jr., Lawrence P.
• Position: PRESIDENT'S PERSPECTIVE

Last month in this column, I speculated on the fiscal demands resulting from the Quadrennial Defense Review, and whether the plan is affordable. This month, we continue the focus on needs and resources, but begin to consider other factors that bear on the Defense Department's share of federal revenues.

The defense spending debate that continues to unfold in Washington, in many ways, ignores the harsh fiscal realities the nation will need to face.

As we observe ongoing war developments, defense strategy and budget trends, it is impossible to not notice that red flags are everywhere.

We have seen defense budgets grow consistently since 9/11. This was a necessary move to support expanding military commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq. But it is becoming increasingly clear that the spending will have to level off at some point, if the nation is to get its financial house in order.

At the same time, the United States will need to somehow find a way to keep its military forces from "breaking," as a result of repeated deployments, depleted stocks and worn-out equipment. And the Defense Department also must secure enough resources to modernize aging ground, sea and air weapons systems.

The Defense Department asked for $439.3 billion in fiscal year 2007. This is nearly a 7-percent increase over the budget that was enacted for 2006. Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England points out that this may seem like a lot of money, but it represents a smaller percentage of the nation's gross domestic product than previous defense budgets. "This year's request is projected to be about 3.7 percent of GDP, but it was up to around 4.6 percent in 1991 during the Gulf War; 8.9 percent in 1968 during Vietnam; and 11.7 percent in 1953 at the height of our involvement in Korea," England noted at a House Budget Committee meeting.

England's analysis, however, leaves out one important ingredient in today's budget deliberations: the escalating amounts that are being added to the defense budget in the form of emergency war supplemental requests.

At the same Budget Committee hearing, Rep. Jim Ryun, R-Kan., said that since September 2001, the defense budget--including supplementals--has increased by about 70 percent--or by an average of about 11 percent per year. The nation has spent more than $383 and billion to fight the wars in Iraq Afghanistan. Assuming the president's most recent supplemental request of $68 billion is approved, Congress will have obligated more than $451...