The Budget Control Act Is Dead. Now What?

* The demise of the Budget Control Act and the threat of sequestration does not necessarily portend the end of fiscal instability for the Pentagon, analysts say.

In August President Donald Trump signed into law the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019. The two-year fiscal deal increased defense spending caps for fiscal years 2020 and 2021 by approximately $90 billion and $81 billion--setting toplines of $738 billion and $740.5 billion, respectively--Center for Strategic and International Studies budget analysts Todd Harrison and Seamus Daniels said in a recent policy paper titled, "What Does the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 Mean for Defense?"

The budget deal "is effectively the end of the BCA" which expires after 2021, they noted. "While technically a sequester could still be triggered,... it is highly unlikely that Congress would enact appropriations that breach the newly agreed-to caps."

The timing also means that Congress could potentially pass defense appropriations before the start of the fiscal year on Oct. 1 and avoid a continuing resolution, which it has often failed to do.

"However, the mere fact that a budget deal is in place does not guarantee that the appropriations process will proceed smoothly," they said, noting that parts of the federal government did not have appropriations enacted on-time for 2019 and there was a partial government shutdown, even though a topline agreement was already in place.

Lawmakers...

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