The big picture.

• Position: Outlook Summary for 2004

* Bill Witte on the National Forecast: Gross Domestic Product is to approach 4 percent next year. This growth should be more broadly based than during the past two years, with significant help from business investment in new plant and equipment, and probably also from some inventory rebuilding. The economy could generate close to two million new jobs in 2004.

* John Boquist and Bill Sartoris forecast the Financial Picture: We expect to see a slight rise in interest rates during 2004. The stock market will continue to make gains, although at a less spectacular rate than in 2003.

* Jeff Fisher on Housing: Housing starts will continue near the same level of about 1.7 million to 1.8 million starts (single and multi-family)...