The Asia pivot: problems, problems, problems.

• Author: Bandow, Doug
• Position: The World Today

Can Pres. Donald Trump succeed where the Obama Administration failed?--by employing China to help reel in a burgeoning (and unstable) nuclear threat in North Korea.

NORTHEAST ASIA is perhaps the world's most dangerous flashpoint, with three neighboring nuclear powers, one the highly unpredictable and confrontational North Korea. For nearly a quarter-century, the U.S. has alternated between engagement and containment in attempting to prevent Pyongyang from developing nuclear weapons. However, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has accelerated its nuclear and missile programs since Kim Jong-un took power in December 2011. Washington has responded with both bilateral and multilateral sanctions, but they appear only to have strengthened the Kim regime's determination to develop a sizable nuclear arsenal. The People's Republic of China (PRC) has grown increasingly frustrated with its nominal ally, but PRC continues to provide DPRK with regime-sustaining energy and food aid.

The U.S. and South Korea, in turn, have grown frustrated with Beijing, which widely is seen as the solution to the North Korean problem. However, the Obama Administration's approach generally was to lecture PRC, insisting that it follow American priorities. Unsurprisingly, successive Chinese leaders have balked. China does possess an unusual degree of influence in Pyongyang, but Beijing fears an unstable DPRK more than a nuclear DPRK. From China's standpoint, the possible consequences of a North Korean collapse--loose nukes, mass refugee flows, conflict spilling over its border--could be high. The Chinese leadership also blames Washington for creating a threatening security environment that discourages North Korean denuclearization.

Thus, the U.S. should change tactics. Instead of attempting to dictate, the U.S. must persuade the Chinese leadership that it is in PRC's interest to assist America and U.S. allies. That requires addressing China's concerns by, for instance, more effectively engaging the North with a carrot, offering to ameliorate the costs of a North Korean collapse to Beijing, and providing credible assurances that Washington would not turn a united Korea into another U.S. military outpost directed at China's containment. Such a diplomatic initiative still would face strong resistance in Beijing, but it may be the best alternative available.

Washington, under the new Trump Administration, should develop a comprehensive diplomatic strategy to persuade China to cooperate with the U.S., South Korea, and Japan in pressing DPRK to abandon its nuclear program. The North Korean dilemma continues to worsen, as the Kim regime tests more nuclear weapons and develops longer-range missiles. Tighter sanctions have proved little more effective than diplomatic entreaties. Many officials and analysts alike see action by China as the best and perhaps only solution.

On one of his many trips to Beijing, now-former Secretary of State John Kerry pressed PRC on the issue, declaring that "China has a unique role it can play." However, the Chinese authorities remain unconvinced. They have taken slightly tougher positions toward the North over time, but so far have done little to compel Pyongyang to halt its forbidden weapons programs. Simply demanding that China intervene will not work. Washington must persuade Beijing to do more. The objective should be to convince Beijing to back an allied denuclearization deal and cut all assistance for the...