The Arab Spring, the responsibility to protect, and U.S. foreign policy - some preliminary thoughts.

• Author: Nanda, Ved P.

1. INTRODUCTION

   By the autumn of 2012 the euphoria accompanying the heady days of the Arab Spring was replaced by uncertainty and unease. (1) The uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa that toppled several oppressive regimes in the region began in Tunisia in December 2010 in the wake of the self-immolation of fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi, and spread to Egypt and Libya in January and February 2011, respectively. Within a month, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, who had long ruled their countries with an iron hand, were gone. Yemen and Bahrain faced similar protests and demands for change, followed by Libya in February 2011, where Colonel Muammar Qaddafi used brute force to suppress dissent.

   The U.N. Human Rights Council, U.N. Security Council, and the Arab League condemned the gross and persistent violation of international human rights law and international humanitarian law by the Qaddafi regime. These condemnations and demands for the Qaddafi regime not to use force against peaceful demonstrators were met by total defiance. The Security Council imposed sanctions, and in response to calls for a no-fly zone and intervention to protect civilians NATO intervened, and after protracted civil war Colonel Qaddafi was overthrown and subsequently killed by rebels. The Syrian conflict continues, resulting in death and destruction in the country and the fear that the conflict--which is spilling over into the neighboring countries--will destabilize the region.

   Almost two years have passed since the initial Tunisian protests. With governments in transition in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen, the ongoing civil war in Syria, and continuing unrest in several other countries, an appraisal of the outcome of these dramatic changes in the region is warranted.

   Writing in the November 8, 2012 issue of the New York Review of Books, two keen observers stated:

   Darkness descends upon the Arab world. Waste, death, and destruction attend a fight for a better life. Outsiders compete for influence and settle accounts. The peaceful demonstrations with which this began, the lofty values that inspired them, become distant memories. Elections are festive occasions where political visions are an afterthought. The only consistent program is religious and is stirred by the past. A scramble for power is unleashed, without clear rules, values, or endpoint. It will not stop with regime change or survival. History does not move forward. It slips sideways. (2) Paul Richter said on September 14, 2012, in the Los Angeles Times: "The cascade of anti-American protests in the Middle East this week is a jolting reminder to the White House of a dangerous dimension of the 'Arab Spring' revolutions: Freedom for long-suppressed Islamist groups that weak elected governments can't manage and that America can't control." (3)

   What follows in Section II is a brief look at the major recent developments in selected countries in the region. Section III highlights the Responsibility to Protect ("R2P"), a concept endorsed by the 2005 World Summit of Heads of State and Government to protect civilians from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing, (4) its invocation and application in Libya, and the failure of the international community to apply it in Syria. Section IV introduces the contribution of the 44th Annual Sutton Colloquium participants in this issue, preceding the concluding remarks in Section V.

2. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SELECTED COUNTRIES

   A common feature of all these countries in transition is their ailing economies. A long period of unrest, coupled with uncertainty about the political and economic direction of these countries, has taken a heavy toll. Selected developments of note follow.

   1. Egypt

      The Muslim Brotherhood was not actively involved during the struggle against Hosni Mubarak as demonstrations and liberal and secular forces primarily led protests in Tahrir Square. However, as the only cohesive organization, the Brotherhood galvanized the electorate and won the elections with Mohamed Morsi officially recognized on June 24, 2012--the winner of Egypt's first competitive presidential election. (5) He was "the first Islamist elected as head of an Arab state." (6)

      Notable developments since then include the selection of the cabinet ministers by Morsi and his consolidation of power; (7) accusations that the Muslim Brotherhood is stifling dissent; (8) the attack on the American embassy by an angry mob; (9) a trial of workers for foreign nongovernmental organizations ("NGO") for being part of unregistered organizations, and hence accused of receiving illegal funding; (10) drafting of the new constitution; (11) and response to Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip. (12)

      In early August, Morsi selected five ministers from the Brotherhood, excluding selection from other political parties and choosing only two women, one of whom was also the only Christian member, (13) leading to the perception that the Brotherhood was seeking to dominate Egypt's politics. Subsequently, he consolidated power by forcing the retirement of his defense minister, the Army chief of staff, and several senior generals. (14)

      On November 22, 2012, he asserted new powers, unilaterally decreeing greater powers for himself, exempting all his decisions from judicial review, and barring the courts from dissolving the constituent assembly that is drafting the new constitution. (15) He also ordered the retrial of Mubarak and top aides on charges of killing protesters during the uprising and appointed a new Prosecutor General. (16) Among several prominent Egyptian political leaders who opposed this move, Mohammed ElBaradei, a former presidential candidate and former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, wrote on his Twitter account: "Morsi today usurped all state powers and appointed himself Egypt's new pharaoh. A major blow to the revolution that could have dire consequences." (17) A prominent jurist, Saleh Eissa, wrote on the website of the state newspaper, Al Abram, urging citizens "to take to the street and die, because Egypt is lost," and added that "immunizing the decisions of the president with a constitutional declaration is a forgery and a fraud." (18) A senior U.S. State Department official is reported to have said in Washington: "We are seeking more information about President Morsi's decisions and declaration today, which have raised concerns." (19)

      The next day, President Morsi's opponents were reported to have burned his party's offices in several cities--including Suez, Port Said, and Ismailia--and thousands of people gathered to protest his power grab in Tahrir Square in Cairo, while his supporters massed outside the presidential palace where Morsi said he had taken this action to achieve political, social, and economic stability. (20) The government has also been criticized for using tactics to stifle dissent. (21)

      On September 12, Egyptian demonstrators breached the fortified walls of the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, in protest of the American-made anti-Muslim video, "Innocence of Muslims," that had been shown on Cairo television by local Islamist broadcasters to whip up sentiment against the United States. The mob replaced an American flag with the black banner of jihad. Egyptian riot police did not use force against protesters. (22) Morsi issued only a mild rebuke of the rioters and waited twenty-four hours before issuing his statement against those who had stormed the embassy, and only after a blunt phone call from President Obama. (23)

      Forty-three employees from five international NGOs face jail sentences for being part of unregistered organizations and having received part of $150 million of U.S. aid grants to promote "democracy and good governance." (24) Under the prior Egyptian law, Law 84 of 2002, this constitutes receiving illegal funding. (25) Under the law, all NGOs must be registered with Egypt's ministries. Although a new draft law relaxes the government's control on local NGOs, the situation for foreign NGOs remains unchanged. (26)

      The makeup of the constituent assembly charged with drafting Egypt's new constitution has been challenged by critics on the ground that the Islamist majority on the committee is endeavoring to create Egypt as an Islamic state. The criticism relates to draft articles including those on women's rights, Islamic law, minority rights, the role of the judiciary, and the powers of the president. In late October 2012, a court declined to rule on the legality of the assembly, which, the critics claim, is unrepresentative as it is dominated by Islamists. (27) The court instead referred the case to the Supreme Constitutional Court, but this would not have stopped the drafting committee from completing its task, as the assembly is to finish its work, including the drafting of the constitution, by December 12. (28) But President Morsi's Constitutional Declaration of November 22 states that "[n]o judicial body can dissolve the Shura Council [upper house of parliament] or the Constituent Assembly." (29)

      As Israel struck the Gaza Strip in November 2012, Mr. Morsi was torn between loyalty for the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Egypt's landmark peace treaty with Israel. His response included recalling his Ambassador to Israel, sending his prime minister to Gaza to support Hamas, and calling President Obama, the United Nations, the European Union, and the Arab League for support. (30) He took the lead in mediating a ceasefire between the warring parties, which was reached on November 21, after eight days of conflict, through an American diplomatic push. (31)

   2. Tunisia

      Instability, tensions between Islamists and secular and liberal forces, and an ailing economy followed the revolution in Tunisia known as the "Jasmine Revolution." The first free elections were held in October 2011 to elect an assembly to draft a constitution and shape a new Tunisia. (32) The moderate...