The Afghanistan elections I.

• Author: Baker, Robert

When the United States invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 the original mission was to capture Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind the September 11th terror attacks. This mission, named "Operation Enduring Freedom," turned into much more than just a manhunt. Rather the United States, with help from other NATO countries, began reforming the dysfunctional governing system under which that country had been oppressed for years.

In early 2002 the U.S. began forming Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) that would lead in the reconstruction process in different regions of the country. These teams engaged in various projects such as building schools and houses, improving fresh water systems, and electrical systems among other things in order to improve the quality of life. One of the most notable achievements the United States can claim is the vast improvement in the health care system for people. The PRT's have also played a key role in helping Afghans familiarize themselves with a democratizing government.

With the Afghan presidential election a few weeks away, an analysis of the candidates is timely, as well as a prediction as to which of the eleven candidates vying for the seat would be most likely to further future security and economic relationships with the United States. Clearly, this is impossible to predict accurately until that person is in power; however a cursory examination of the candidates' profiles can provide clues as to their political philosophies.

Predictions can be made based on a thorough analysis of that which is generally known about the candidates. Though Afghanistan's future leadership should be determined by Afghanistan's citizens, the United States and its allies have a vested interest in this country's future and should make every effort to plan for all contingencies as they develop based on the upcoming presidential election.

A vast amount of data can be gained from a cursory review of one's past. In this analysis, the ranking of candidates is based on the following data: past positions held in governmental or political affairs; past political or professional relationships; the current relations and past history with the United States; and affiliation with region, tribe, and ethic group.

Based on the above criteria we believe that Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai would have a higher probability of becoming the most advantageous political and security ally for the United States. He is in agreement with the U.S. in the...