Testing the Systemic Model of Social Disorganization Theory in South Korean Neighborhoods: A Latent Class Growth Analysis Approach to Specifying Pathways to Homicide

• Author: Yung Hyeock Lee,Sujung Cho,Shannon B. Harper
• DOI: 10.1177/1088767920941564
• Published date: 01 May 2021
• Date: 01 May 2021
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767920941564

Homicide Studies

2021, Vol. 25(2) 139 –163

© 2020 SAGE Publications

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DOI: 10.1177/1088767920941564

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Article

Testing the Systemic Model

of Social Disorganization

Theory in South Korean

Neighborhoods: A Latent

Class Growth Analysis

Approach to Specifying

Pathways to Homicide

Sujung Cho1, Yung Hyeock Lee2,

and Shannon B. Harper3

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between structural characteristics and homicide

trajectories in South Korean neighborhoods utilizing the systemic model of social

disorganization theory as an analytical lens. Group-based trajectory modeling of

Korean homicide data across 229 municipal-level sub-national regions between 2008

and 2013 yielded three groups: high-decrease, moderate, and low-stable. The odds of

belonging to the high and moderate groups compared to the low-stable group were

significantly increased for communities with a higher-level divorce rate and residential

instability rate. Social control was significant in the high-decrease group compared to

the low-stable group, but had no mediating effect on this relationship.

Keywords

systemic model of social disorganization theory, homicide developmental trajectories,

neighborhood structural characteristics, social controls, latent class growth analysis

1Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, USA

2KonKuk University, ChungJu-Si, ChungCheongBuk-Do, South Korea

3Iowa State University, Ames, USA

Corresponding Author:

Yung Hyeock Lee, Department of Police Science, KonKuk University, 268 ChunWon-DaeRo, ChungJu-Si,

ChungCheongBuk-Do 380-701, South Korea.

Email: police@kku.ac.kr

941564HSXXXX10.1177/1088767920941564Homicide StudiesCho et al.

research-article2020

140 Homicide Studies 25(2)

Introduction

In the United States, scholars have extensively studied the dramatic increase in homi-

cide and other violent crime in the late 1980s and early 1990s and 40% decrease by the

end of the century (Baumer et al., 2018). While an abundance of literature explores

homicide trends in the Western world (e.g., Farrell et al., 2011, 2014; Rosenfeld &

Messner, 2009; Tseloni et al., 2010), minimal research examines these trends in non-

Western nations. In South Korea (hereafter: Korea) for example, homicide rates have

increased across time and are higher than those in other democratic nations (Chawla,

2010a, 2010b; Korean National Police Agency [KNPA], 2000–2010; Organisation for

Economic Cooperation and Development, 2016).

Much of the prior research on neighborhoods and crime tests the validity of social

disorganization theory. Development of social disorganization theory has shifted to

exploring a systemic model wherein community-level social controls such as recre-

ation centers, social welfare spending, political participation, and religious institutions

mediate the relationship between structural factors and crime (Clear et al., 2003;

Goudriaan et al., 2006; Kubrin & Weitzer, 2003; Sampson et al., 1997). These social

controls help communities to recognize common goals and disrupt the criminogenic

effects of social disorganization. Several studies have found that community institu-

tions serving as social control mechanisms mediate the relationship between negative

structural conditions and crime/homicide (Maume & Lee, 2003; Peterson et al., 2000;

Yoon, 2018).

Despite a growing body of contextually oriented research on homicide in neighbor-

hoods in the United States (e.g., Kubrin & Herting, 2003; Stults, 2010), minimal

research has employed longitudinal designs to explore growth patterns of homicide in

a unique Korean context in which community-level structural characteristics and

social controls are important to understanding homicide. Such research is important as

foundational social disorganization concepts, such as residential instability and popu-

lation turnover, are temporal in nature (Fagan & Davies, 2004; Stults, 2010). Further,

minimal research has identified neighborhood subgroups within the larger population

and their unique patterns of homicide developmental trajectories.

Using 6-year nationally representative data (2008–2013), the current study seeks to

fill these gaps in the literature through identification of homicide trajectories in Korean

neighborhoods using group based trajectory modeling (GBTM); and examination of

how community-level structural characteristics associated with systemic social disor-

ganization theory (i.e., divorce rate, family income, financial independence, growth

rate in population, residential instability, residential heterogeneity, and crime rate), and

social controls (i.e., health-care service and social service organization) affect mem-

bership in those trajectories.

Theoretical Framework

Social disorganization theory as conceptualized by Shaw and McKay (1942) argues

that community-level structural factors such as poverty, ethnic heterogeneity, and