A Test of the Association Between Racial Economic Threat and Racial Disparities in Jail Incarceration Across Counties in the United States

• Published date: 01 January 2025
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/21533687221126754
• Author: Carl L. Reeds,Lorie Fridell,Mateus Rennó Santos,John Cochran
• Date: 01 January 2025
• Subject Matter: Articles

A Test of the Association

Between Racial Economic

Threat and Racial Disparities in

Jail Incarceration Across

Counties in the United States

Carl L. Reeds

1

, Lorie Fridell

1

,

Mateus Rennó Santos

1

, and John Cochran

1

Abstract

According to Blalock’s racial threat theory, “threat”posed by minority populations to

majority populations leads to racial disparities in formal social control, such as incar-

ceration. Economic threat occurs when the Black population has the economic

resources to compete with the White population for jobs, wages, and housing.

The majority reacts by increasing formal social control against minorities. Blalock fur-

ther predicted that the relationship between economic threat and social control

would be curvilinear, with a decreasing effect as economic threat increased, and

that it would be moderated by the size of the Black population, being strongest

when the Black population was small. This study tests Blalock’s predictions using a

sample of 2,092 United States counties. Results indicate that the relationship between

economic threat and disparity in jail rates is curvilinear and is moderated by the per-

cent of the population that is Black, but not in a manner predicted by Blalock.

Economic threat is negatively related to incarceration disparities, particularly in coun-

ties with larger Black populations. This negative relationship becomes stronger as

economic threat increases. Disparities are diminished where Blacks are demographi-

cally and economically more powerful.

Keywords

economic racial threat, criminal justice disparities, formal social control, racial

disparities, race and incarceration

1

Department of Criminology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Carl L. Reeds, Department of Criminology, 4202 East Fowler Ave., SOC 107, Tampa, FL 33620, USA.

Email: reedsc@usf.edu

Article

Race and Justice

2025, Vol. 15(1) 67-91

© The Author(s) 2022

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/21533687221126754

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Introduction

Racial disparity in the criminal justice system is well documented. Blacks, in particu-

lar, are overrepresented at the various stages of the criminal justice system, including

arrests (Mitchell & Caudy, 2017; Patten, Bond, Low-Weiner, Hood, Lu, Tomascak, &

Chauhan, 2019), use of force (Goff, Lloyd, Geller, Raphael, & Glaser, 2016;

Lautenschlager & Omori, 2019), stops and searches (Baumgartner, Epp, & Shoub,

2018; Ross, Fazzalaro, Barone, & Kalinowski, 2017), and sentencing (Arnold,

Dobbie, & Yang, 2018; Crow & Johnson, 2008; Ulmer & Johnson, 2004).

Although Blacks constitute 13 percent of the population in the United States, they

account for more than 35 percent of the individuals conf‌ined in local jails (Minton

& Zeng, 2021).

In discussing racial disparities in the criminal justice system, it is important to dis-

tinguish between racial representation, racial disparities, and racial discrimination. The

2020 U.S. Census provides information on racial representation, indicating that the

U.S. population consists of 60 percent White Non-Hispanics, 19 percent Hispanics,

13 percent Blacks, 6 percent Asians, and 2 percent other. When racial groups are dis-

proportionately represented among, for instance, arrestees relative to their representa-

tion in the population, we have “racial disparities.”One potential contributor to racial

disparities in the criminal justice system is differential offending, wherein a group is

sanctioned more because it commits more crimes (Hipp, 2011; Loeber, Farrington,

Hipwell, Stepp, Pardini, & Ahonen, 2015; Mears, Cochran, & Lindsey, 2016).

Another potential contributor, “racial discrimination,”occurs when disparities in sanc-

tioning are produced by bias and prejudice (Correll, Hudson, Guillermo, & Ma, 2014;

Morrow, White, & Fradella, 2017).

One theoretical approach that attempts to explain macro-level discrimination is the

"racial threat" theory f‌irst introduced by Blalock (1967). The theory predicts that

various forms of “threat”posed by minority populations to majority populations gen-

erates a reaction by the majority, which responds by increasing the use of formal social

control (i.e., the criminal justice system) against the minorities.

Blalock identif‌ied three types of racial threat–symbolic threat, political threat,

and economic threat. Economic threat, which is the subject of this study, occurs

when the Black population has large or increasing economic resources that may

allow them to compete with the White population for jobs, wages, and housing

(Dollar, 2014).

Blalock (1967) suggested that the relationship between economic threat and social

control would be curvilinear. Discrimination is expected to increase as minorities grow

in numbers, and the slope is expected to taper off as the minority population becomes

substantial. Blalock posited that, once Blacks attain substantial economic power, they

are able to use their resources to combat the discrimination. Blalock not only predicted

a curvilinear relationship, but he argued that this relationship would be moderated by

the size of the minority population. Specif‌ically, he predicted that the larger the Black

population the weaker will be the relationship between economic racial threat and dis-

parate formal social control.

68 Race and Justice 15(1)