Terre Haute forecast 2022.

• Author: Guell, Robert

Like most municipalities in this early post-pandemic era, "now hiring" signs dot the Terre Haute landscape. They, along with occasional announcements of new investments, new jobs and a few notable larger projects, are like the bright fall colors that dazzle. The reality, however, is that they merely distract from the unpleasant contours in the terrain beneath. Pushing aside the distractions, the defining feature of the Terre Haute economic landscape continues to be its shrinking labor force. Unlike the nation and state, Terre Haute's labor force has been in secular decline. From a mid-1990s peak of nearly 90,000, it has declined over a quarter-century to the point that it has, on occasion, dipped below 70,000.

Figure 1 displays the labor force relative to its position near the trough of the 2008-2009 recession for the nation, other Indiana metropolitan areas and the Terre Haute MSA. While the national and state data display the much-commented-upon "reverse square root" pattern (where workers lost during the shutdowns have been slow to return after the late 2020 rebound), the loss of workers in Terre Haute actually accelerated during a period of robust national employment before the pandemic, experienced a relatively modest decline during the pandemic, and since then has continued its downward march. This is despite a robust local construction environment. In times of recovery it can be easy to overlook this trend if one only pays attention to unemployment rates, announcements from local boosters and civic leaders, or news items about local businesses. In terms of unemployment, the Terre Haute region actually has fared relatively well coming out of the pandemic (see Figure 2). But, of course, a low unemployment rate when the labor force is shrinking is a "glass is half full" take on the situation.

To get another "glass is half full" perspective, focus on the nearly completed convention center downtown or the long-promised, but not-yet-realized, casino project. The convention center, as well as Indiana State University's renovation of its Hulman Center, have been significant capital improvements for the downtown area. It is still a bit early, however, to reach any conclusions about the economic impact of those projects. Slated to be complete by March 1, 2022, the first booked event for the convention center will be a meeting of 150 state firefighters in 2023. This is a relatively small event for a center of that size. Prior readers of our...