Terre Haute forecast 2020.

• Author: Guell, Robert

Over the next few years, three construction projects will define--and in some ways constrain--Terre Haute's approach to economic development. The November 5 municipal elections set the die for local government officials and their favored projects. Mayor Bennett and every incumbent who made it to the general-election ballot was reelected, a referendum allowing for the reassignment of a casino license to the county passed handily, and a tax levy for school district operational expenses also passed (albeit narrowly). Taken together, these election results can only be seen as an endorsement of current political leadership, the policies they have advocated, and a particular approach to economic development for an area that faces significant challenges going forward.

As a result of recent electoral outcomes, over the next few months and years, the city and county will see the construction of a convention center in downtown Terre Haute, a casino (the location of which is yet to be determined), and a new 500-bed jail near the I-70 bridge at the Wabash River. Regardless of how one views these projects (and the authors of this article have different views on the benefits of them), these are projects that will define the community's future.

In our view, the casino and convention center are second-best attempts by a community that has failed to attract jobs and people in other ways. Evidence of the failure of the community to generate positive net migration can be seen in the school corporation's enrollment data, which show that for 15 consecutive years, every "class" has shrunk in size when measured from birth to kindergarten, through every grade to graduation. While births outpace deaths in Vigo County, net outmigration among schoolchildren runs at 1.5 percent to 2 percent per year. In facing this dilemma, however, Terre Haute is not unique. Almost every small metropolitan area in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio faces the same issues--population loss due to outward migration and a shrinking manufacturing base. The only exceptions are communities with large, tier-one research universities (see Figure 1). While Terre Haute does have high-quality postsecondary educational institutions, they are not large enough to act as a magnet for economic development, and those institutions themselves face strong headwinds.

Figure 1: Population change for selected metros, 2010 to 2018 Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 20,934 Bloomington, IN 8,226 Elkhart-Goshen, IN 8,001...