TELECOSM: How Infinite Bandwidth Will Revolutionize Our World.

• Author: Levin, Blair
• Position: Review

TELECOSM: How Infinite Bandwith Will Revolutionize Our World by George Gilder

Free Press, $26.00

DID THIS SUMMER'S NEWS THAT a company you'd barely heard of (JDS Uniphase) paid $41 billion to acquire a company you had never heard of (SDL) make you feel uncomfortably like the character in the Bob Dylan classic--that "something is happening here but you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones"? If so, read George Gilder's Telecosm. The book is a masterful, and highly readable, review of the science, technology, and companies that are changing the landscape of communications.

Gilder's central thesis is that the era of the "Microcosm"--a time defined by the creation of new abundance in computing power--is being replaced by the era of the "Telecosm"--a time defined by the new abundance in communications networks that will transform our world. The most important abundance is bandwidth, which is the measure of how many digital bits per second can pass through the network. Due to advances in fiber optics (using glass and lasers to transport the bits) increases in bandwidth over the next few years will enable us to send thousands of times more data far more quickly and cheaply than we do today.

The resulting change will be more profound than that engendered by the Microcosm. As Gilder points out, communication is more central to our lives than computing. While most humans have a limited universe for problems that require massive new computing power, the human capacity to use new forms of communication, from wireless phones to e-mail to instant messaging, is limitless.

Gilder takes his readers on a survey of the underlying physics involved in transformative communications technologies. He introduces us to some of the thinkers whose insights years ago led to the developments we are just beginning to observe. Gilder then profiles the companies he thinks are going to be the big winners in this new era. He concludes with a thought-provoking set of "20 Laws of the Telecosm."

But while Gilder's overview of the emerging landscape is the best I've read, his love of technology obscures his vision when non-technical factors come into play. His analysis of business strategy is often overly dependent on whether a company fits into his paradigm. It is one thing to conclude that fiber optics will change communications. It is another to predict which companies will succeed and what strategies will make them a success. While most Wall Street analysts would be proud...