Tariff Effect on Soybean Trade.

AuthorPack, Darrin
PositionTRENDS - Brief article

Chinese soybean imports from the United States could drop by as much as 71 percent if China were to impose trade restrictions on U.S. soybeans in response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese products, according to a study for the U.S. Soybean Export Council conducted by Purdue University agricultural economists Wally Tyner and Farzad Taheripour.

China is the world's largest soybean importer, and 62 percent of all U.S. soybean exports go to China. Using an analysis model developed at Purdue, the researchers projected the impact on soybean production if the Chinese government were to adopt tariffs ranging from 10 to 30 percent. Their analysis shows that if the Chinese were to adopt a 10 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans, U.S. exports to that country could fall by a third. Total U.S. soybean exports could decline by 18 percent, and total U.S. soybean production could drop by 8 percent. If China imposed a 30 percent tariff, total U.S. soybean exports could fall by 40 percent and total U.S. soybean production could decrease by 17 percent.

Tyner said an escalating trade war could hurt...

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