Taming the populist impulse.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.

AS IT WAS DURING the 1980s Reagan boom, the American economy is the envy of the world. The forecasts are rosy; the Dow-Jones Average is breaking records; inflation is a mere two percent; and the budget deficit is diminishing at a rate few economists had predicted. With tax revenues pouring in, the Democratic president and the Republican Congress appear to have found common ground on a five-year budget and tax agreement despite the annoying contentiousness and pettiness of both sides.

The times are good, and perhaps even a bit boring. This condition spoils the fun for those who think democratic politics always should give the public a good fight over important things. No one is more aware of this than Bill Clinton, who is eager to assure his place among the important presidents. The agenda he ran on in 1996 was so small and insignificant that most people have forgotten what it was. Good times and consensus politics also have thrown the Republican Congressional leadership off balance. They apparently have jettisoned the most contentious aspects of their agenda -- ending racial and gender preferences, passing tort reform, introducing the flat tax, and eliminating outdated Cabinet agencies.

Those who find good times trying should not become too discouraged. New fissures in American politics already are visible, as seen in last summer's vote in the House of Representatives over most favored nation (MFN) status for China. It exposed the fault lines dividing the populist and establishment wings of both parties. The vote was 259-173, rejecting an effort to end such status. Among the Democrats, Minority Leader Richard Gephardt led the charge against MFN for China, eager to cast himself as the populist alternative to Vice-Pres. Al Gore for the party's presidential nomination in 2000. Gephardt stood with the unions, which see China not as a source of investment opportunity and an export market, but as a threat to manufacturing jobs. Gephardt was far from alone. Despite Clinton's support for continuing normalized trade with China, the Democrats in the House barely supported the President's position (112-93).

Among the Republicans in the House, the split was not as close, but perhaps deeper. Christian evangelicals, led by Gary Bauer of the Family Research Council, opposed MFN and wanted to condition trade to the protection of persecuted Christians in China. Thus, Christian conservatives, the heart of the populist right, were in direct conflict with...