Taking off: helicopter market to enjoy decade of growth.

• Author: Pappalardo, Joe
• Position: Helicopter industry forecast - Cover Story

UPGRADES AND A SURGE OF NEW U.S. MILITARY orders should make the next 10 years a busy decade for rotorcraft manufacturers, according to a recent study by Forecast International Inc.

By 2012, manufacturers will fill $11.1 billion worth of orders, for a total of 672 aircraft.

That spike comes at the tail end of a decade's worth of growth, with new military rotorcraft production and overhauls buoying the world market, reported Forecast International. The market research firm is predicting that 5,448 aircraft will be produced between 2004 to 2013, at a value of $84 billion. That number includes newly built rotorcraft and an array of modification programs.

Those upgrades--1,668 major ones. by the firm's count--are fueling the growth, with an estimated total value of $14.3 billion. Also contributing is the reallocation of billions of dollars that were dedicated to the RAH-66 Comanche program, which was killed in 2004, and whose funds had been spread around other military aviation programs.

The Army intends to use some of that money to buy 800 new aircraft, mostly choppers.

One effort that emerged in the wake of the Comanche debacle is the Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) program, under which the Army will buy 322 helicopters to replace UH-1s and OH-58s. Potential replacements include the Bell's 210 and Eurocopter's AS 365.

Other Comanche funds will be dedicated to the purchase of additional Black Hawks, Chinooks and the new Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (ARH). "Competition for the ARH and LUH programs is expected to be intense," the firm said. "The ARH and LUH efforts are just two of a number of high-profile procurement programs for which military helicopter manufacturers are scrambling to gain a competitive edge."

One of the beneficiaries of the termination of the Comanche is Eurocopter's Tiger combat helicopter, said analysts. "The Comanche would have been a very strong competitor to the Tiger on the world market for acquisitions of armed reconnaissance or light attack helicopters, the company noted.

The firm cited the U.S. Air Force's Personnel Recovery Vehicle program, centered around the purchase of 132 combat search-and-rescue helicopters, as a hot grab for defense firms. Those choppers will replace the service's fleet of Sikorsky HH60Gs.

Despite being beaten to the presidential helicopter bid in January, Sikorsky is projected to remain the market leader for the 2004-2013 forecast period, in both unit production and production value. The...