Tackling Drug-Lords in a Nascent Market: Raids and Drug Crime in Uruguay

• Author: Juan Ignacio Pereira,Juan A. Bogliaccini,Diego Pereira,Ignacio Borba,Cecilia Giambruno
• DOI: 10.1177/08874034211046985
• Published date: 01 May 2022
• Date: 01 May 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/08874034211046985

Criminal Justice Policy Review

2022, Vol. 33(4) 351 –372

© The Author(s) 2021

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DOI: 10.1177/08874034211046985

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Article

Tackling Drug-Lords in a

Nascent Market: Raids and

Drug Crime in Uruguay

Juan A. Bogliaccini1, Diego Pereira1,

Juan Ignacio Pereira2, Cecilia Giambruno3,

and Ignacio Borba1

Abstract

This article analyzes the effects of police raids for different types of crime in the

most conflictive neighborhoods of Montevideo, Uruguay. Interrupted time-series and

intervention models are estimated using different specifications of geographical area

where the crackdowns occurred and also different control strategies to produce

robust results. The effect of crackdowns on crime reporting is mixed; evidence

suggesting crackdowns may produce short- and long-term effects on crime depending

on their ability to affect gangs’ competition for the territory and the market. It

appears that the effects of raids are sensitive to the context of the criminal situation.

Crackdowns are not consistently effective in influencing crime. Evidence shows it

is hard to reach levels of critical enforcement through 1-day crackdowns and that

crackdowns’ ability to alter drug-market conditions would depend not only on the

ability to extract drug dealers from the territory but also in preventing a rapid return.

Keywords

crime, crackdown, Uruguay, drug, police

Introduction

On August 1, 2019, Hamburg port authorities found 4.5 tons of cocaine hidden in a

shipment of soybeans coming from the port of Montevideo. The news was shocking

1Universidad Católica del Uruguay, Montevideo, Uruguay

2Brown University, Providence, RI, USA

3Inter American Development Bank, Montevideo

Corresponding Author:

Juan A. Bogliaccini, Universidad Católica del Uruguay, Av. 8 de Octubre 2738, Montevideo 11600,

Uruguay.

Email: juan.bogliaccini@ucu.edu.uy

1046985CJPXXX10.1177/08874034211046985Criminal Justice Policy Review XX(X)Bogliaccini et al.

research-article2021

352 Criminal Justice Policy Review 33(4)

on the two sides of the Atlantic. This cocaine seizure set a record for Hamburg port

authorities in terms of the amount of drug, even in the context of a steep upward trend

in which 2017 seizures around Europe increased to 140.4 tons from a previous 70.9

tons in 2016.1 This seizure accounted for the biggest drug shipment ever recorded in

Montevideo. The long-lasting war on drugs in the north of Latin America has had the

consequence of moving drug routes for Europe and the rest of the world to the south.

In this context, Uruguay has seen a steep increase in drug-related crimes and a con-

tinuous growth of drug dealing operations, which has proven to be particularly perva-

sive to poor slums at the outskirts of the city of Montevideo. The city is going through

one of the worst periods of violence and crime in recent decades. In 2018, homicide

and robbery figures were the highest on record. These figures also show worrisome

signs of spatial inequality. While the country average homicide rate for 2018 is 11.8

per 100,000 inhabitants—similar to Costa Rica or the Dominican Republic—

Montevideo’s homicide rate of 16.1 is closer to figures of the Democratic Republic of

Congo or Lesotho.2

In Montevideo, violence and crime incidence rates change dramatically between

neighborhoods that are just a few kilometers away.3 Violence is concentrated in the

most disadvantaged social contexts, exacerbating living conditions and generating a

vicious cycle of violence and marginality that conspires against any attempt at social

development or even social order (see Averdijk et al., 2016; Jacottet, 2018). A 30% of

all homicides committed in Uruguay in 2018 were concentrated in four neighborhoods

in Montevideo, home to 9% of the country’s total population. Most of these homicides

occur in a few poor neighborhoods in the north area of the city, among which the

neighborhood of Casavalle ranks at the top, with a homicide rate that exceeds 70

homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.

The relation between local distributors and international smugglers, as between

distributors and crime, has been widely documented (see Reuter, 1986, for a classic

study). The drug market in Montevideo began a worrisome trend during the 1990s

with the arrival of coca paste, which rapidly penetrated all social sectors. With it, a

dealer market began an expansive stage due to increased consumption. However, with

the economic effects of the commodity boom, coca paste began to be replaced in the

upper social strata, which shrunk the market and increased violence between drug

dealers due to market competition.

The governmental response to this steep increase in crimes has been varied both in

terms of the level of geographical focus and the diversity of approaches, following

common international practices. Three strategies are worth mentioning. First, the gov-

ernment implemented a strategy of Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design

(CPTED) beginning in 2012, which involves a high geographical focus and wide array

of approaches. For example, surveillance cameras were installed at different points in

Montevideo, but mostly with a focus on the city downtown, characterized by frenetic

business activity during office hours but lonely otherwise and with hot spots of mid-

dle- and lower-middle-class residential areas.4 By 2017, the government claimed

(although no evaluation has been made public) this system had reduced thefts by 80%

and robberies by 73%.5 Second, in the same vein, the government initiated a Program