The big switch: why democrats should draft John McCain in '04, and why he should let them.

• Author: Green, Joshua

DEMOCRATS ARE MORE DISPIRITED today than they have been in years. It's not just that President Bush's approval ratings continue to defy gravity, or that he's been largely successful in enacting a conservative agenda. Nor is it simply that Democrats seem to lack a fighting spirit and an effective message. It's not even the distinct possibility that Republicans could retake the Senate this fall, and with it, control of Washington. What's plaguing so many in the Democratic Party is that looking to the future, there doesn't appear to be a savior. Presidential aspirants are already lining up for 2004, but so far, no one's very excited.

It isn't uncommon for political reporters, at about this point in the election cycle, to size up the field and declare it lacking. But that isn't the problem. Under normal circumstances, this would have to be considered a tremendous selection: a decorated war veteran (Sen. John Kerry), the most recent vice-presidential nominee (Sen. Joe Lieberman), a popular majority leader (Sen. Tom Daschle), a charismatic Southern senator (Sen. John Edwards), and (let's face it) the winner of the last presidential election (Al Gore). Sure, each hopeful has liabilities--Edwards lacks experience; Kerry's a bit slick; etc. And yet these flaws don't explain why people view the field with despair. Deep down, what worries them is the growing sense that none of these candidates can beat Bush. Doing that will require someone with the perfect combination of qualities: the ability to match Bush's greatest strength (military leadership), exploit his greatest weakness (shameless ties to special interests), and offer a fresh, appealing agenda of his own. More and more, an honest survey of Democratic contenders suggests that unless the political winds change, the likeliest outcome is: four more years of George W. Bush.

There is an alternative, but it isn't one that most people have considered. In fact, the best Democrat may be someone who's no Democrat at all: Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). As a war hero who's hawkish on foreign policy, he more than matches Bush on the military front. As a reform-minded foe of corporate welfare, Big Tobacco, and the Republican right, he is peerless. McCain is Bush's most vociferous critic, who voted against the president's tax cut, forced Bush's hand on campaign finance reform, and federalized airport security in the face of White House opposition. He has co-sponsored numerous bills with Democrats--many of them in the presidential-aspirant class--requiring background checks at gun shows (Lieberman), a patients' bill of rights (Edwards), better fuel-efficiency standards in cars and SUVs (Kerry), and expanded national service programs (Bayh). He is even drafting a bill with Lieberman to reduce greenhouse gasses and mitigate global warming. As Ronald Brownstein remarked recently in the Los Angeles Times, "[McCain] has become the most hyphenated name in Washington."

Given the near hopelessness with which most Democrats view their 2004 prospects, it's pretty easy, if you're a Democrat, to make the case that McCain should switch parties outright to pursue the Democratic nomination. The difficult part is imagining McCain making the switch. He is, after all, a lifelong Republican. It's not clear that he wants to run for president again. And it's assumed that if he does, it will be as a Republican or, more likely, as an independent. McCain has said that he won't leave his party sufficiently often that one feels compelled to take him at his word. But his rationale--that he's a Teddy Roosevelt Republican--has remained fixed, even while he's gravitated toward moderate Democratic beliefs. His protestations are beginning to ring hollow. He is keenly aware that the GOP is no longer the party of Roosevelt. That an unfailingly pro-business president embodies the party's moderate wing only underscores the GOP's drift to the right; there is no room in its ranks for a maverick like McCain. At the same time, McCain has made a dramatic shift leftward. As his vote against the Bush tax cut showed, he is no longer in any meaningful sense a contemporary Republican. It's time he recognized this and that Democrats exploited it. Because if McCain truly desires to be president, his best chance of winning may be to run as a Democrat.

Animosity to Curiosity

John McCain's alienation from the Republican Party and disdain--happily reciprocated--for President Bush have been well documented. Observers caught a rare public glimpse of this recently when Bush grudgingly signed the campaign finance reform bill without a ceremony or even a courtesy phone call to McCain. (The White House mailed him a pen from the bill signing.) As practically the Democrats' only legislative collaborator, McCain has less and less in common with his Republican colleagues. He counts few friends among the caucus. He hasn't attended the party's policy retreat in years...