Swap-Shop: Time for a Deal in Kosovo?

• Author: Sell, Louis
• Position: Exchange of territory with Serbia

I arrived in the Kosovo capital of Pristina on the twentieth anniversary of the beginning of the 1999 NATO bombing that drove out Milosevic's genocidal Serbian forces. Fighting through traffic jams of late model vehicles we passed rows of brightly lit shopping emporiums and smart new high-rise apartments where, on my first visit to Kosovo over thirty years ago, the landscape featured sleepy villages and horse-drawn vehicles. In the center of Pristina, we passed the "NEWBORN" sculpture where happy crowds calling themselves "the Young Europeans" celebrated Kosovo's 2008 independence.

Later, at a film showing to mark the anniversary, when I asked whether viewers were happy with what had been achieved in the past two decades, the replies were almost universally negative. Kosovars of all ages, classes, and political beliefs have lost confidence in their leaders, viewing them as corrupt and failing to advance either the domestic well-being or international standing of the new state.

A Hard Present and an Uncertain Future

Kosovo remains a poor country. According to some measures, average per capita GDP is only 3,500 Euros. Unemployment hovers around 30% and youth unemployment is near 60%--this in a state where the average age is 26.

Corruption is widespread. A recent UN study found that 11 % of the population reported paying regular bribes to officials in public administration and 28% reported having to pay or give a gift in order to get a job. Government contracts are widely believed to be awarded on the basis of political connections and the building boom that has swept Pristina and some other cities is generally considered to be fueled by money from corrupt leaders or from questionable sources abroad.

Against this backdrop, people are losing faith in Kosovo's future. Between 2007 and 2018, Kosovo's population fell by 15.4%--the largest decline in Europe. Last year over 17,000 young people left for Europe legally, including two thousand students who left Prizren, Kosovo's second city. Even the middle class seems to be losing hope. A friend who has occupied responsible positions since the war told me that if conditions do not improve, he will leave with his family for Canada. "I don't want my children to grow up here," is a refrain heard often.

Kosovo's international future remains uncertain. Serbia's patron, Russia, has blocked Kosovo's admission into the UN and five EU member states failed to recognize Kosovo's independence. Serbia has continued what amounts to an undeclared state of hostilities against the nascent Kosovo state--restricting the free movement of people and trade across its territory, blocking Kosovo's membership in many international organizations, and using Interpol to detain Kosovars when they travel abroad.

Viewed by Serbs as the cradle of their medieval civilization, Kosovo occupies a mythical status in the Serbian national psyche and a poisonous place in Serbian politics. A few years ago, then Serbian president Nikolic told me privately that all Serbs understood Kosovo was lost and that no one really wanted its two million Albanian inhabitants back to participate in Serbian political life. But if he acknowledged that fact publicly every Serbian politician would immediately label him a traitor--and he would do the same to any other politician who admitted it.

During negotiations toward Kosovo's independence the international community pushed the Kosovars into concession after concession in the hope of gaining Serbia's agreement to the loss of its former autonomous province. But when Belgrade refused to go along Kosovo was nevertheless saddled with the deal, including a constitution that allows the Serb minority, now less than 5 % of the population, the effective ability to block changes. Kosovars support the constitution's democratic institutions and...