SURVEY: Can Asia go on absorbing the world's crude oil?
| Date | 01 November 2017 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/oet.12538 |
| Published date | 01 November 2017 |
SURVEY
For more than a decade, the Asia/Pacic region has been the main engine of growth in world oil demand. Since 2007,
demand there has increased by 7.5 mn bpd, accounting for 80% of a total global increase of 9.4 mn bpd. As a result,
Asia/Pacic has been able to absorb most of the 9.8mn bpd rise in global oil production. ere are now signs, though,
that the region’s demand growth is starting to slow down, which could mean that the Asia/Pacic countries will be
unable to act as the buyer of last resort for the world’s crude oil. ese issues are examined by Oil and Energy Trends’
Consulting Editor, Dr Paul McDonald.
Can Asia go on absorbing the world’s crude oil?
Outstripping the world
Between 2007 and 2016, oil consumption in the Asia/
Pacic region rose by 7.53 mn bpd, or 28.9%: more than
nine times the rate of all the rest of the world. In 2007, it
accounted for 29.9% of global oil consumption:by 2016,
this had risen to 34.8%. Of the 9.40 mnbpd increase in
global consumption over the period, some 80.1% of this
occurred in Asia/Pacic (see Tab le E ) .
e demand picture across the Asia/Pacic region
nevertheless is far from even. Japan and Taiwan each
recorded a decline, of which Japan’s was byfar the larger,
at 976,000 bpd. All the other main Asian countries
recorded an increase between 2007 and 2016, of which
the largest were South Korea, with 364,000 bpd, or
15.2%, and ailand, with 352,000 bpd, which had the
highest percentage gain outside China and India, at
34.2% (see Tab l e F) .
Rising imports
e Asia/Pacic market is of particul ar interest to oil
exporting countries since it is a large net importer.
Table E
Oil Demand and Supply: Asia/Pacic v Rest of the World, 2007 and 2016
Region 2007 2016 Change 2007 2016
(mn bpd) (mn bpd)
(%)
Share of Total (%)
Demand
Asia/Pacic
China∗7.808 12.381 4.573 58.69.012.8
India 2.941 4.489 1.548 52.63.44.6
Others 15.298 16.707 1.409 9.217.617.3
Total 26.047 33.577 7.530 28.929.934.8
Rest of World
Total 61.11 4 62 .981 1.867 3.170.165.2
World
Total 87.161 96.558 9.397 10.8100.0100.0
Supply
World
Total 82.334 92.150 9.816 11.9
∗Excluding Hong Kong
Totals rounded
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy,2017
Table F
Asia/Pacic Oil Consumption 2007 and 2016
Country 2007 2016 Change
(th bpd) (th bpd) (%)
China∗7,808 12,381 4,573 58.6
India 2,941 4,489 1,548 52.6
South Korea 2,399 2,763 364 15.2
Thailand 1,030 1,382 352 34.2
Indonesia 1,318 1,615 297 22.5
Australia 935 1,036 101 10.8
Taiwan 1,110 1,046 (64) (5.8)
Japan 5,013 4,037 (976) (19.5)
Others 3,493 4,828 1,335 38.2
Total 26,047 33,577 7,530 28.9
∗Excluding Hong Kong
Totals rounded
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy,2017
In 2016, the region’s net import total amounted to
25.6 mn bpd: by far the largest of any world region. is
has risen by 7.5 mn bpd, or41.4% f romits 2007 gure of
18.1 mn bpd.
© 2017 John Wiley& Sons Ltd
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