Subnational Elections and Media Freedom in Autocracies: Diffusion of Local Reputation and Regime Survival

• Author: JunHyeok Jang
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10659129211066895
• Published date: 01 December 2022
• Date: 01 December 2022

Article

PoliticalResearchQuarterly

2022,Vol.75(4)1321–1334

©TheAuthor(s)2022

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DOI:10.1177/10659129211066895

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SubnationalElectionsandMediaFreedom

inAutocracies:DiffusionofLocal

ReputationandRegimeSurvival

JunHyeokJang

1



Abstract

Whatistheeffectofsubnationalelectionsonautocraticregimesurvival?Theexistingliteraturesuggeststhatholding

subnationalelectionshelpfosterautocraticregimestability.Iarguethatthebenefitofsubnationalelectionsforregime

survivalisconditionalonalackofmediafreedom:Asthelevelofmediafreedomincreases,thepositiveinfluenceof

holdingsubnationalelectionsonregimesurvivaldecreases.Thisisbecausesubnationalelectionsprovidelocalpoliticians

withopportunitiestobuildgoodreputations,andwhengoodreputationsformedatthelocallevelspreadtoother

jurisdictionsviarelativelyfreemedia,citizenscanusethemasafocalpointtocoordinateagainsttheregime.Usingthe

quantitativeanalysisofTime-SeriesCross-Sectionaldata,Ifindempiricalsupportformytheory.

Keywords

authoritarianregimesurvival,authoritarianinstitutions,subnationalelections,mediafreedom

Introduction

Whatistheeffectofsubnationalelectionsonautocratic

regimesurvival?Theextantliteratureonauthoritarian

electionshasarguedthatelectionsservetostabilizethe

regime(Gandhi,2008;Magaloni,2006;Geddes,2005).

Holdingelectionsnotonlyprovidesanautocratwith

domesticandinternationallegitimacy(LevitskyandWay,

2010;Schedler,2002),butalsosignalsthestrengthofthe

regimetooppositionelites(Little,2012;Magaloni,2006;

Rozenas,2016;Simpser,2013),therebydeterringchal-

lengestotheregime.Moreimportantly,therecentliter-

aturehaspaidcloseattentiontohowelectionsenablean

autocrattoco-optoppositions(Gandhi,2008;Gandhiand

Lust-Okar,2009;Magaloni,2006)aswellashowthey

provideinformationaboutthepopularityoftheregime,its

officials,anditsopponents(Brownlee,2007;Miller,

2015).Despitethedifferenceinfoci,theliteraturehas

largelyarguedthatautocraticelectionscanenhancere-

gimesurvival.

Asapartoftheautocraticelectionliterature,recent

scholarshiphasbeguntostudysubnationalelectionsin

autocracies.Ithasbeenarguedthatsubnationalelections

servetoco-optcompetentoppositionlocalelitesbyal-

lowingthemtotakethelocalofficeandhavesomeextent

ofdiscretion(GandhiandLust-Okar,2009).Moreover,

subnationalelectionsallowcitizenstoselecttheirown

localleaderswhoarefamiliarwithlocalaffairs(Buckley

etal.,2014),andsendasignalofdiscontentaboutin-

cumbentleaders(GandhiandLust-Okar,2009;Geddes,

2005).Byenablingautocratstogatherinformationabout

thecompetenceoflocalelites,replaceincompetent

subordinates,and/orco-optcompetentoppositions,sub-

nationalelectionsarebelievedtostabilizeauthoritarian

regimes.

Butaresubnationalelectionsalwaysconduciveto

regimesurvival?TaketherecentcaseofTurkey.In2019,

Turkeyheldamayoralelection,andmanyopposition

localleaders,includingEkrem

˙

Imamo˘

glu,ofIstanbul,

woncontroloflocalgovernments.Iftheelectionhadbeen

apartofgovernmenteffortstoco-optcompetentlocal

leaders,astheextantliteraturehascommonlyposited,

PresidentRecepTayyipErdo˘

ganshouldhavelet

˙

Imamo˘

glutakeoffice.Instead,heattemptedtodismissthe

resultoftheelectioninIstanbulbydemandinganew

election.WhydidErdo˘

ganoppose

˙

Imamo˘

glu’staking

1

UniversityofCaliforniaMerced,Merced,CA,USA

CorrespondingAuthor:

JunHyeokJang,PoliticalScience,UniversityofCaliforniaMerced,5200

NorthLakeRd,Merced,CA95343,USA.

Email:jjang23@ucmerced.edu