Subnational Elections and Media Freedom in Autocracies: Diffusion of Local Reputation and Regime Survival

AuthorJunHyeok Jang
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1177/10659129211066895
Published date01 December 2022
Date01 December 2022
Article
PoliticalResearchQuarterly
2022,Vol.75(4)13211334
©TheAuthor(s)2022
Articlereuseguidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI:10.1177/10659129211066895
journals.sagepub.com/home/prq
SubnationalElectionsandMediaFreedom
inAutocracies:DiffusionofLocal
ReputationandRegimeSurvival
JunHyeokJang
1
Abstract
Whatistheeffectofsubnationalelectionsonautocraticregimesurvival?Theexistingliteraturesuggeststhatholding
subnationalelectionshelpfosterautocraticregimestability.Iarguethatthebenetofsubnationalelectionsforregime
survivalisconditionalonalackofmediafreedom:Asthelevelofmediafreedomincreases,thepositiveinuenceof
holdingsubnationalelectionsonregimesurvivaldecreases.Thisisbecausesubnationalelectionsprovidelocalpoliticians
withopportunitiestobuildgoodreputations,andwhengoodreputationsformedatthelocallevelspreadtoother
jurisdictionsviarelativelyfreemedia,citizenscanusethemasafocalpointtocoordinateagainsttheregime.Usingthe
quantitativeanalysisofTime-SeriesCross-Sectionaldata,Indempiricalsupportformytheory.
Keywords
authoritarianregimesurvival,authoritarianinstitutions,subnationalelections,mediafreedom
Introduction
Whatistheeffectofsubnationalelectionsonautocratic
regimesurvival?Theextantliteratureonauthoritarian
electionshasarguedthatelectionsservetostabilizethe
regime(Gandhi,2008;Magaloni,2006;Geddes,2005).
Holdingelectionsnotonlyprovidesanautocratwith
domesticandinternationallegitimacy(LevitskyandWay,
2010;Schedler,2002),butalsosignalsthestrengthofthe
regimetooppositionelites(Little,2012;Magaloni,2006;
Rozenas,2016;Simpser,2013),therebydeterringchal-
lengestotheregime.Moreimportantly,therecentliter-
aturehaspaidcloseattentiontohowelectionsenablean
autocrattoco-optoppositions(Gandhi,2008;Gandhiand
Lust-Okar,2009;Magaloni,2006)aswellashowthey
provideinformationaboutthepopularityoftheregime,its
ofcials,anditsopponents(Brownlee,2007;Miller,
2015).Despitethedifferenceinfoci,theliteraturehas
largelyarguedthatautocraticelectionscanenhancere-
gimesurvival.
Asapartoftheautocraticelectionliterature,recent
scholarshiphasbeguntostudysubnationalelectionsin
autocracies.Ithasbeenarguedthatsubnationalelections
servetoco-optcompetentoppositionlocalelitesbyal-
lowingthemtotakethelocalofceandhavesomeextent
ofdiscretion(GandhiandLust-Okar,2009).Moreover,
subnationalelectionsallowcitizenstoselecttheirown
localleaderswhoarefamiliarwithlocalaffairs(Buckley
etal.,2014),andsendasignalofdiscontentaboutin-
cumbentleaders(GandhiandLust-Okar,2009;Geddes,
2005).Byenablingautocratstogatherinformationabout
thecompetenceoflocalelites,replaceincompetent
subordinates,and/orco-optcompetentoppositions,sub-
nationalelectionsarebelievedtostabilizeauthoritarian
regimes.
Butaresubnationalelectionsalwaysconduciveto
regimesurvival?TaketherecentcaseofTurkey.In2019,
Turkeyheldamayoralelection,andmanyopposition
localleaders,includingEkrem
˙
Imamo˘
glu,ofIstanbul,
woncontroloflocalgovernments.Iftheelectionhadbeen
apartofgovernmenteffortstoco-optcompetentlocal
leaders,astheextantliteraturehascommonlyposited,
PresidentRecepTayyipErdo˘
ganshouldhavelet
˙
Imamo˘
glutakeofce.Instead,heattemptedtodismissthe
resultoftheelectioninIstanbulbydemandinganew
election.WhydidErdo˘
ganoppose
˙
Imamo˘
glustaking
1
UniversityofCaliforniaMerced,Merced,CA,USA
CorrespondingAuthor:
JunHyeokJang,PoliticalScience,UniversityofCaliforniaMerced,5200
NorthLakeRd,Merced,CA95343,USA.
Email:jjang23@ucmerced.edu

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