A $1 million study predicts the future of Colorado's water.

• Author: Best, Allen
• Position: NATURAL RESOURCES

Colorado's Western Slope at mid-century will become hotter. Crops such as corn and alfalfa will need more water. Winters will likely become shorter, runoff will occur earlier in the year, and the hot, generally drier months of summer will last longer.

But the Colorado River Water Availability Study foresees less uniformity for winter precipitation: much less snow south of Interstate 70, but increased snowfall and winter rain in the Meeker, Steamboat Springs and Grand Lake areas.

The $1 million study, which was released in March in draft form, is described by Colorado water officials as cutting edge. "I don't know of any other state that is putting the time, resources and money into this," said Jennifer Gimbel, executive director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, a state agency charged with overseeing protection and development of Colorado's waters.

The Colorado River Water Availability Study down-scales information found in global circulation models in an effort to better understand the range of possibilities that will result from greenhouse gas emissions accumulating in the atmosphere.

"This breaks new ground," says Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District. "Will it happen that way? We don't know. But from a planning perspective, there is good information from these models."

Kuhn explains that much as a casino slot machine has odds favoring the casino, the statistical compilation clearly shows the probabilities of a distinctly drier Colorado River Basin in the years 2040 and 2070. He maintains that given this probability, Colorado should develop its remaining water resources very cautiously...