Studs and duds: in Afghanistan, the Navy has weapons that work. So why don't the Army and the Air Force?

• Author: Umansky, Eric
• Position: Cover Story - Cover Story

A SINGLE WEAPON CAN SOMETIMES change the course of a war. Consider the Stinger missile, which the CIA supplied to Mujaheddin fighters in Afghanistan in 1986. The guerrillas promptly used the shoulder-launched rockets to shoot Soviet helicopters out of the sky and drive the Russians out of the country. Today in Afghanistan, if there's a candidate for potential super-weapon, it's a pilotless plane called the Predator, designed by the Air Force for missions too risky or unmanageable for piloted crafts. Specifically, the Air Force requires the drone to "provide around-the-clock reconnaissance support under adverse weather conditions [and] in areas where enemy defenses have not been adequately suppressed." Recently, the Predator has been outfitted with a Hellfire air-to-ground missile, theoretically making it the perfect weapon for hunting down Taliban troops and al Qaeda hideouts without putting U.S. soldiers at risk. (The craft is controlled via joystick by a soldier who is hundreds of miles away). It was a Predator that tracked a convoy carrying Taliban leader Mullah Omar and fired the missile that leveled his compound.

Unfortunately, one of these miraculous weapons crashed. Then another. The Pentagon blamed bad weather--even though bad weather is precisely what the craft was designed to fly through. In October, the Pentagon's central testing office reported that "the Predator cannot be operated in less than ideal weather, including rain. Furthermore, the system is unable to provide reliable, effective communications through the aircraft, as required." The classified report, obtained by the watchdog group Project on Government Oversight, concluded that "the cumulative effect of the system's limitations render the Predator operationally ineffective."

The Air Force has built 60 Predators. Not counting the two lost in Afghanistan, about a dozen have crashed during testing, and another seven have either crashed or been shot down over Kosovo and Iraq. In early November, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged that they couldn't withstand an Afghan winter, although designed to do so. So Rumsfeld ordered the deployment of the Global Hawk, an even newer unmanned craft still under development, to do the job the Predator cannot.

Such performance failures are typical of many Pentagon weapons systems. But there are instructive exceptions. Consider the Navy's new glider-bomb, the Joint Stand-Off Weapon. Like the Predator, the JSOW is a "next-generation" instrument, designed to hit the enemy while keeping our troops out of harm's way. It can be dropped 40 miles from a target, and glide to its objective with a built-in satellite navigator. Like the Predator, the JSOW met with a few glitches during its development. Among other problems, its "derailer," the device that separates the weapon from the jet when launched, didn't work properly.

But that's where the similarities end. The JSOW, derailer and all, is now fully operational. According to a report by the Pentagon's testing office, "No JSOW weapon has experienced a failure of this component during flight test or operational use." The glider-bomb is currently in action over Afghanistan. The Pentagon won't release any information about its performance or that of most other weapons. ("This isn't a game," said a Pentagon spokesperson. "We're not keeping score.") But Navy pilots have fired JSOWs at anti-aircraft positions and radars in Iraq, where, according to a Pentagon testing report, "Battle damage accuracy assessment estimates exceeded requirements for the weapon." In other words, it works.

Two weapons, both highly advanced, both with design defects. Why does one work so much better than the other? The answer to that question is vital because having the right weapons and having them work can make the difference between winning and losing a war.

The B-2's Porta-Potties

Typically, when the military develops a new weapon, it performs tests along the way to see if the weapon meets its "specifications." Does the bullet leave the gun barrel at the right speed? Does the jet's engine provide the required amount of thrust? But only after the weapon is built (and often only when the contractor's production lines are gearing up) does the military typically perform what are called "operational" tests--all-or-nothing exams meant to scrutinize how a weapon would fare in combat. Can a soldier under fire easily work the controls? Will the gun shoot if it's covered in mud? The problem with this method is that by the time the tests reveal any major problems, it's often too late to do much about it.

Unlike the other services, a few years ago the Navy changed its testing regime. It now conducts operational testing as early as possible, gradually imposing combat-like conditions, frequently while the weapon is still being developed. The JSOW works so well, says a Pentagon testing report, because the Navy "demonstrated a capability to vapidly address and resolve" glitches. The Pentagon's testing office, meanwhile, noted that the Air Force had waited too long to test the Predator. "All the production contracts were awarded prior to operational testing," so that "the use...