Stroke, heart attack predicted accurately.

• Position: Fitness Tests

How fast can you run a mile? If you are middle-aged, the answer could provide a strong predictor of your risk of heart attack or stroke over the next decade or more. In two studies, researchers found that how fast a middle-age person can run a mile can help predict the risk of dying of heart attack or stroke decades later for men and could be an indicator of cardiovascular disease for women.

In one study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, researchers analyzed the heart disease risk of 45-, 55-, and 65-year-old men based on their fitness level and traditional risk factors, such as age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, total cholesterol, and smoking habits. The scientists found that low levels of midlife fitness are associated with marked differences in the lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease. For example, a 55-year-old man who needs 15 minutes to run a mile has a 30% lifetime risk of developing heart disease. In contrast, a 55-year-old who can run a mile in eight minutes has a lifetime risk of less than 10%.

"Heart disease tends to cluster at older ages, but if you want to prevent it, our research suggests that the prescription for prevention needs to occur earlier--when a person is in his 40s and 50s," indicates internist Jarett Berry, corresponding author on both studies.

Researchers in this study found that a higher fitness level lowered the...