"A STORY OF GRINDING PROGRESSIVE ADVANCES": UKRAINIAN EFFORT AND THE WAR.

• Author: Motyl, Alexander

Alexander Motyl has built a career analyzing the decline and dissolution of the USSR, including Russia's emergence and Ukraine's place within post-Soviet Eastermn Europe. The Journal spoke to Professor Motyl on the state of the war, the resilience of the Ukrainian people and military, and the folly of blaming NATO for Russia's unprovoked invasion.

Journal of International Affairs (JIA): We're well past the one year mark of the War. We are your thoughts on the state of affairs at the moment--can you reflect upon the past year?

Alexander Motyl (AM): A year ago, at least initially after the attack on February 24th, I was stunned. I thought that the Russians would engage in some kind of limited military action in the East in the Donbas area; I did not think they would embark on a full-scale invasion on all fronts. Nor did I think that they'd be committed to destroying the civilian population and committing genocide.

In the first few weeks, it looked like the Russians were making significant gains, but it became clear that they weren't going to proceed as quickly as they imagined. The Ukrainians were putting up a stiff resistance and were, in some cases, pushing the Russians back. Despite my initial shock, on February 26th, I actually wrote an op-ed for the Atlantic Council, and the title of the column that I proposed to them was "Putin Will Lose." Because it seemed to me that there was just no way that he could possibly win. And since then, it's been a story of grinding progressive, and occasionally very impressive, Ukrainian advances.

JIA: What has gone on more recently?

AM: As you know, since the onset of the war the Ukrainians recaptured Kharkiv province and then roughly half of Kherson, and, although the Ukrainians are readying a counteroffensive, it has been more or less of a stalemate since about June. But it's a stalemate that has cost the Russians enormously. I believe the Ukrainian estimates, which are about 200,000+ Russian dead and presumably two to three times as many wounded. But what's clear to me is that the Ukrainians are pushing back, while the Russians haven't been able to launch anything resembling a successful offensive. They lose thousands of men to gain 10 yards. So the best the Russians can achieve isn't even a Pyrrhic victory, but a Pyrrhic defeat.

JIA: What do you think has been key to Ukrainian success on the battlefield?

AM: Many people focus on the resilience and morale of the Ukrainian army. They've also had...