Stop the war before it starts.

• Author: Cortright, David
• Position: Cover Story

The Bush Administration once again is gearing up for war against Iraq. Its a war that could cause a massive loss of life and could end with the use of nuclear weapons by the United States or Israel. It's a war that is unnecessary, a war we--as progressives, as peace activists--have an obligation to oppose with all nonviolent means at our disposal.

The attack-Iraq lobby argues that the military overthrow of Saddam Hussein is a necessary part of the war on terrorism. Saddam is indeed a brutal tyrant and a perpetrator of terrorism against his own people and neighboring countries, but there is no solid evidence that he supported the Al Qaeda attacks of September 11. Bush has emphasized the danger of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction as a justification for deposing Saddam. Iraq's weapons programs are certainly a threat to security, but there are more effective ways of containing this danger. U.S. officials would like nothing less than the installation of a pro-American government that will do Washington's bidding and open the country's oil wealth to Western companies. For these purposes, the White House believes that the war option remains a necessity.

The preparations for battle are already under way. Senior U.S. commanders have moved to the Persian Gulf region and have brought with them 1,000 war planners and logistical support specialists. General Tommy Franks, the head of Central Command, has developed options for deploying heavy tanks and mechanized infantry divisions. Armored vehicles are already pre-positioned in the region. The Air Force is transferring some of its operations from Prince Sultan Air Base, where Saudi officials may refuse permission for bombing raids against Iraq, to the al-Udeid base in Qatar, where American pilots will be able to operate freely. The Defense Intelligence Agency has produced a classified report that identifies a long list of potential targets for air attack. British officials have ordered their commanders to begin preparations for possible operations in Iraq. The stage is being set for what could be a large-scale and bloody conflict.

Kenneth M. Pollack, former Iraq specialist on the National Security Council, argued in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs that the military overthrow of Saddam Hussein would require a major ground invasion by 200,000 to 300,000 U.S. troops. Air power alone would not be sufficient. There is no equivalent in Iraq of the Northern Alliance, which shouldered most of the burden of fighting in Afghanistan. Kurdish forces in northern Iraq and Shi'ite groups in the south fought against the Baghdad regime after the Gulf War but were betrayed by Bush's father. They are no match for Hussein's army of perhaps 400,000 troops. Although weakened by more than a decade of sanctions, the Baghdad government retains a large military apparatus. Removing the present regime and installing a pro-American government will require the invasion and occupation of Iraq by a substantial number of U.S. ground forces.

The onset of war, if it comes, will likely occur in the first half of 2003. Considerable time will be required for the transport and deployment of military forces to the region. Arms manufacturers will need additional months to replenish the precision weapons expended in Afghanistan and to stockpile inventories. Political factors will also complicate the Administration's...