Stocks to watch: four pickers peruse the top tier of Tar Heel public companies to predict whose shares will be this year's best--and worst--performers.

• Author: Mildenberg, David

Collectively, the 10 largest public companies based in the state are an old bunch, most having been in business more than 100 years and one--Lorillard Inc.--dating back to the 18th century. But, as their shares show, they're spry, with six of them outperforming the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the last five years, something fewer than 15% of U.S. large-cap mutual funds can claim. The two hottest--Triad apparel makers VF Corp. and Hanesbrands Inc.--saw their stock prices soar fivefold since 2009.

While economic growth is picking up, prospects for the 10 companies tend to be muted, says Bobby Edgerton, co-founder of Raleigh-based Capital Investment Cos. That's because they've done so well. Stock-market analysts are notoriously bullish, but only one of the big 10--tech favorite Red Hat Inc., the baby of the bunch, started in 1993--is rated a buy by more than 75% of the experts. It's the one Edgerton likes least because he fears it's overvalued. A contrarian who prefers out-of-favor shares of cash-rich companies, he says investors should focus on individual stocks rather than market trends. "People who think they know what the overall stock market will do are the same ones who thought Carolina would whip State in football this year. [The Wolfpack won 35-7.] Right now, oil has everybody pretty excited because lower oil prices tend to be fantastic for the stock market. But that can all change very...