Sticks and Stones? Connecting Insurgent Propaganda with Violent Outcomes

• DOI: 10.1177/00220027211027291
• Author: Bogdan G. Popescu,Maura R. Cremin
• Date: 01 April 2022
• Published date: 01 April 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

2022, Vol. 66(3) 504 –528

Sticks and Stones?

Connecting Insurgent

Propaganda with

Violent Outcomes

Maura R. Cremin

1

and Bogdan G. Popescu

2

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between ISIS propaganda content and

ISIS-inspired attacks by those outside of the group’s control. We examine the content of

ISIS’ English language magazines, as well as speeches by two of its top leaders. We find that

statements made about enemy countries in most contexts are not associated with a

higher likelihood of violence in those countries. However, when a country is mentioned in

ISIS propaganda in the context of its participation in the air campaign, this corresponds to

an increased likelihood that the country will experience a violent attack. This suggests that

propaganda highlighting key military adversaries may play a role in directing attackers that

are outside the control of the organization’s hierarchy to the group’s preferred targets.

Keywords

conflict, counterterrorism, national security, terrorism

Introduction

After emerging on the international stage, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)

captured the world’s attention. At the height of its power, the group was feared for its

1

Department of Political Science, University of Chicago, IL, USA

2

Dondena Center for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milano,

Lombardia, Italy

Corresponding Author:

Maura R. Cremin,Department of Political Science, University of Chicago,5828 S. University Ave, Chicago,

IL 60637, USA.

Email: mcrem3@uchicago.edu

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Article

Cremin and Popescu 505

extreme brutality and military expansionism, as well as its slick and effective pro-

paganda campaigns. Within two years of its announcement by Abu Bakr al-Bagh-

dadi—an Iraqi cleric who would be the group’s leader—ISIS was cited as the

motivating force behind terrorist attacks from Saudi Arabia to France and Australia.

Yet many of the attackers were never under the control of the group they claimed to

represent; instead, they were radicalized in their respective home countries. Some

formed their connection to ISIS almost exclusively through virtual interaction.

We evaluate the relationship between ISIS statements about “enemy” countries

and ISIS-inspired attacks in those countries. We focus on the relationship between

propaganda issued by ISIS leadership and attacks by individuals who operate outside

of ISIS’ territorial control, which we call independent attacks. Utilizing an original

hand-coded dataset, we categor ize ISIS propaganda statements ab out individual

countries. We distinguish references to enemy countries that are rooted in historical

or religious grievance from those rooted in contemporary events. We further dis-

aggregate references to contemporary eve nts by separating out those statements

made regarding countries’ military activities against ISIS. We test whether there

is a relationship between the type of statement made about a particular country and

the incidence of an attack against that country. We find that ISIS propaganda only

predicts attacks in a country where it directly discusses that country’s involvement in

the anti-ISIS air campaign. This suggests that propaganda that highlights key mil-

itary adversaries may play a role in directing would-be attackers outside the control

of the organization’s hierarchy to the group’s preferred targets.

The contribution of our work is twofold: first, we present a new dataset that looks

at the source of ISIS propaganda itself by examining statements from ISIS. Second,

we present a theory connecting ISIS propaganda statements to observed violence,

particularly in the context of terrorist campaigns that occur outside the group’s main

center of territorial control. Though propaganda has been assessed in the literature,

its impact on violence remains understudied. We attempt to address that gap here.

These findings have important implications for our understanding of the role of

communication in conflict. They suggest that insurgent propaganda may be associ-

ated with violent outcomes and should be taken seriously. More broadly, they

suggest that rhetoric and the conveyance of information may have concrete ramifi-

cations for conflict. In addition to terrorist propaganda, we find that media coverage

of air campaigns appears to be associated with increased likelihood of attack. This

indicates that when states engage in overseas strikes, even sympathetic coverage of

military activities may presage a need to bolster national defenses.

Literature Review

There is a large literature attempting to explain and predict terrorist attacks. Histori-

cally, scholars have focused on structural factors in the target and/or source country

in order to predict attacks. These include studies of the relationship between regime

type and attacks (Pape 2005; Chenoweth 2010; Eubank and Weinberg 2019; Savun

2Journal of Conflict Resolution XX(X)