Step Into the Unknown

• Author: Tim Chartier
• Published date: 01 November 2016
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/jcaf.22234
• Date: 01 November 2016

78

© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com).

DOI 10.1002/jcaf.22234

C

o

m

m

e

n

t

a

r

y

Step Into the Unknown

Tim Chartier

In the summer of 2010, I

received a call from a pro-

ducer of the ESPN Sport

Science program. They were

stymied in their mathematical

analysis and needed help. Sport

Science is a television program

that airs short segments ana-

lyzing the science of sports.

Theprogram often examines

current sporting events with

analysis often involving math-

ematics, which is why they were

turning to me.

As we completed the call,

I jotted down ideas and then

performed calculations. In the

end, I had a result that was

described in a report intended

to give the Sport Science

staff an understanding of my

work so they could make any

changes as the TV segment

evolved during production.

Since that time, I’ve period-

ically received calls requesting

help, with varying amounts of

time available to complete the

analysis. Each time, I’ve been

able to offer insight that moved

the production to a final piece

that aired on ESPN.

Yet there is an important

moment in every call. When

the team poses the mathemati-

cal problem, I generally do not

know what will be effective

analysis. Said another way, I’m

immediately stuck. As such,

my first question is always the

same, “When do you need to

know if I think I can produce

a solution?” Meeting this dead-

line enables Sport Science to

have confidence in my offer-

ing a solution or time to find

someone else.

After I accept a request to

explore a question, I step into

the unknown. I don’t expect

numbers to glow and the solu-

tion to almost magically emerge

from a momentary mental mist,

as mathematical research is

often depicted by Hollywood.

Sport Science poses difficult

problems. Only careful analysis

and consideration can lead to

insights that will fuel a process

toward insight.

Stepping into the unknown

is common in data analysis.

The same moment often occurs

in my work with my sports

analytics group at Davidson

College. I often tell the under-

graduates who join the analyt-

ics group that they must learn

to step into the unknown and

stand there, not knowing the

path to take, and trust that

their training and ingenuity

will help guide them to a place

of insight and action. Often, if

we knew immediately what to

do, then someone would have

already done it. Keep in mind,

Sport Science only calls with

problems that stumped their

stellar staff.

Einstein said, “If we knew

what it was we were doing, it

would not be called research,

would it?” Research can offer

new insight and lead a business

in innovative and even bold

directions. Who do you contact

to pose open-ended challenges?

When our analytics group

is posed a difficult problem,

Iturn to my student collabora-

tors who can comfortably not

know an answer.

Artists sketch outlines of

their final drawings before

settling into their bold final

strokes. The errant marks led

to the final drawing. Inno-

vation comes from taking

various steps that are rarely

entirely linear or lead directly

to the desired goal. To lean

onanother Einstein quote,

“Anyone who has never made

a mistake has never tried any-

thing new.”

Failed attempts offer

moments of learning and

gained insight. To move in

new directions, you must have

patience. Further, when you

get new results, you must look

carefully. New insight can look

odd, given it can offer insight