Steady sailing for water transport.

• Author: Tyson, Ray
• Position: Alaska's major marine carriers register modest growth - Industry Overview

Modest shipping growth keeps Alaska's major marine carriers on an even keel.

Alaska's major water carriers anticipate modest growth in cargo volumes this year but caution that several economic wild cards could tip the apple cart. Nonetheless, Sea-Land Service Inc. and Totem Ocean Trailer Express (TOTE) are planning for roughly a 4 percent bump in business, slightly below last year's 6 percent growth rate.

A significant portion of 1993's growth in water cargo is attributed to a host of construction projects and the sudden rise of national retail outlets across the state, particularly in Anchorage and other communities in southcentral Alaska.

The question is not whether the trend in construction and retail will continue this year, but to what degree? Other questions also abound: Will the little guy be able to survive the seemingly endless onslaught of retail giants moving to Alaska? And what will changes in the state's retail industry mean to Alaska's shipping carriers?

Marvin Buchanan, Sea-Land's marketing director for Alaska, notes that Anchorage's retail space per capita is about twice the national average. And that generally leads to one thing -- rough times ahead for mom and pop.

"We scratch our heads when we see all these massive places going in right across the street from each other," he says. "And then there is the issue of whether the small guy is going to get hurt. Unfortunately, that probably is happening all over the world, and certainly it's happening in the United States."

Ev Trout, TOTE's vice president of operations, is expecting some decline in retail business in 1994 following last year's blitz in store construction and the huge surge in commodities required to build inventories. On the other hand, he adds, continuing work on two major hospitals and a court house should keep construction hopping in Anchorage this summer.

"These are fairly substantial public-sector construction projects, the likes of which were absent between 1988 and 1989," says Trout. "And there will be another sealift to the North Slope to continue installation of modules for second-phase gas handling at Prudhoe Bay."

With more than 80 percent of all consumer goods sold in Alaska's populous railbelt passing through the Port of Anchorage, officials there are forecasting a respectable 3 percent annual growth rate in general cargo through the turn of the century.

But as assistant port director Richard Burg emphasizes, port growth is tied directly to...