Staying alive.

• Author: Carpenter, Ted Galen
• Position: Situation: Critical - Critical essay

SITTING AT the edge of international attention are states in all but name. Although existing as highly functioning nations, they rest also on the edge of extinction. Taiwan. Kurdistan. Somaliland. Kosovo. With little meaningful international diplomatic recognition, each still often exercises effective self-rule, frequently possessing a vibrant economy and a unified body politic. But they face one unremitting threat: the ownership papers for many of these twilight states are held by others. China won't let go of Taiwan. Iraqis are slow to relinquish control of Kurdistan. Serbia and Russia won't accept an independent Kosovo. Each of these de facto states could claim independence and spur international crises. The threat of wars over these disputed territories is ever present. And once started, conflicts could draw in other powers. The only solution for these twilight states is to lie low and find satisfaction in the cohesion they continue to enjoy.

The modern international system is not well equipped to handle such entities-they simply do not fit. Operating in a kind of twilight zone, enjoying varying degrees of economic, cultural and (sometimes) informal diplomatic interaction with other societies, these de facto states have little or no outside recognition of their legal right to exist. And that doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon.

DESPITE INTERNATIONAL prominence, some of these twilight states, such as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), enjoy almost no international recognition. Turkey is the only country to recognize the TRNC. All other governments regard it as part of the Republic of Cyprus and nothing more than Cypriot territory that Turkey invaded in 1974 and has illegally occupied ever since. Economically, the TRNC is very weak and remains heavily dependent on Ankara's largesse. Turkey also makes the decisions on most meaningful policy issues.

In a roughly similar position is Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia. That entity has performed better than the TRNC in terms of economic development, and it has escaped the bloody chaos that has engulfed the rest of Somalia since the early 1990s. For nearly two decades now, Somaliland has established and successfully defended a degree of political autonomy that is indistinguishable from independence. Yet, Somaliland does not have a patron the way the TRNC can rely on Turkey's support and protection. Not a single country recognizes Somaliland's independence. And whereas the Republic of Cyprus has neither the ability nor inclination to attempt to forcibly put an end to the TRNC's nominal independence, the situation is less certain with regard to Somalia's long-term ambitions.

The international situation involving Kosovo is even more thorny. This province has enjoyed de facto independence under UN tutelage since 1999. The majority Albanian population wants to formally separate from Serbia--but Belgrade, citing the Security Council resolution passed after the NATO intervention, will only offer extensive autonomy. A Kosovo that unilaterally declares independence would enjoy widespread international recognition--far more than the other de facto states--since the Unit ed States would establish ties as would most of the countries in the European Union and the Muslim world. But Russia has made it clear that Kosovo will not be allowed to join the United Nations, and Moscow, Beijing and many other governments will refuse to recognize the new country, concerned about the troubling precedent that NATO's forcible amputation of a part of Serbia's territory will set. In a worst-case scenario, the unwillingness of Serbia and other countries to accept the legitimacy of an independent Kosovo could reignite armed conflict in that part of the Balkans.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Then there is the Republic of China (Taiwan), which is recognized by twenty-three countries. (Granted, all of...