Statisticians still insist temps are rising.

• Position: Climate Change

For the first time, researchers have been able to combine different climate models using spatial statistics to project future seasonal temperature changes in regions across North America. The analysis examines groups of regional climate models, finds the commonalities between them, and determines how much weight each individual climate projection should get in a consensus estimate.

Given the complexity and variety of climate models produced by different research organizations around the world, there is a need for a tool that can analyze groups of them together, explain Noel Cressie and Emily Kang, coauthors who present the statistical analysis in a paper published in the International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation.

"One of the criticisms from climate-change skeptics is that different climate models give different results, so they argue that they don't know what to believe," says Cressie." We wanted to develop a way to determine the likelihood of different outcomes, and combine them into a consensus climate projection. We show that there are shared conclusions upon which scientists can agree with some certainty, and we are able to statistically quantify that certainty."

...