Statewide Economic Performance: Montanas Growth Engine is Humming.

• Author: Barkey, Patrick M.

Some have said that forecasting state and local economies is like trying to drive a car by looking only at your rearview mirror. We've got a great view of where the economy has already been, but seeing what's ahead, or even where we are right now, presents a challenge. As we assess the economic climate for the state in 2020 and beyond, one thing is clear: Montana has enjoyed a good economic year. Tax receipts are strong, unemployment rates are low and visible signs of economic activity are all around us.

The major exception to this cheery news continues to come from the state's farms and ranches, mired in what has been a nearly three-year run of weak prices that have presented agricultural producers with serious financial challenges. The added burden of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agriculture exports has been an unwelcome addition to the list of woes facing farmers.

It is a tribute to the strength of the rest of the economy that the state's overall growth has not reflected these rural setbacks. Indeed, the Bureau of Economic Analysis now puts inflation-corrected nonfarm earnings growth at 2.6 percent in calendar year 2018, up substantially from its preliminary estimate of 1.5 percent. The stronger growth is showing up in state general fund tax receipts, which are up strongly for the fiscal year.

Total wages paid, while not completely describing income, do offer some insights on sources of growth that continued into 2019. Some trends are not new--construction growth was the strongest of any major industry, with places like Bozeman and Missoula posting gains. But more than half of the growth in construction was accounted for by Billings and the state's less urbanized and rural counties. The growth of tech-related activities was apparent from the $70.1 million increase in professional business services wages.

There are also some surprises. Mining wages, which include those of oil production jobs, posted respectable gains in the 12-month period ending in June of last...