Statewide Economic Performance: Is Montana's Economic Hole Shallower Than the Rest?

• Author: Barkey, Patrick M.
• Position: THE YEAR IN REVIEW

The news that Montana's economic performance in 2020 will undoubtedly go down as the worst in its post-war history will not surprise many The swift onset of the global pandemic cratered economic activity here in the spring, just as it did in most of the world. Yet, however severe our economic downturn has been, evidence continues to paint it as milder that what other states have suffered. What that means for our prospects for getting back to our pre-pandemic growth trajectory is just one of many difficult questions ahead for leaders and policymakers to assess.

The speed of the economic collapse of March-April was a formidable challenge for traditional economic sources of information to keep up with. State and regional data, which are slower to arrive, were not able to capture the magnitude of a downturn that ultimately sent national economic output down by 9% (a 31.4% annualized rate) in the second quarter as it was occurring. But data on payroll employment and wages can now tell us how Montana's economy weathered the storm.

Over the first two quarters of last year, Montana suffered a 8.2% payroll job decline, amounting to almost 39,000 jobs. The job losses were disproportionately felt in two industries --accommodations and food (28.1% decline), and arts and entertainment (27.3%)--that were most challenged by physical distancing. With the exception of government, however, no industries were spared. Health care's job declines were especially surprising, given that the downturn was produced by a health crisis.

Yet with the benefit of enough hindsight to allow comprehensive data to arrive, two things have become clear about Montana's recession.

The first is that it has been more of a jobs recession than an income recession. Lost in the focus on the job loss tally is the fact that: a) the types of jobs lost have tended to be on the lower paying end of the earning...