Statewide economic performance.

• Author: Barkey, Patrick
• Position: A YEAR OF STRONG GROWTH

If you pay close attention, you will notice that almost all economic forecasts have two things in common --first, they are optimistic. Recessions are much less common than growth, after all. But those forecasts are usually accompanied by a second thing--a long list of problems that could make those optimistic forecasts go bad; such as a downturn in energy, mining and farming businesses. But other parts of Montana's economy remained strong in 2015 and the state went on to post a good year.

In 2015, the state economy was up over 6,000 jobs and more than $600 million in wages and salaries compared to the previous fiscal year. That job growth was in line with the previous three years, but wage growth in FY 2015 was more than twice as strong as 2014. Together with falling unemployment rates and surging tax revenues, 2015 saw the Montana economy operate much closer to full capacity.

Looking at the wage growth in some major industry categories gives insight into how this came about. Except for the declines in mining wages, due to setbacks in both oil production and metal mining, the story across Montana's industries was one of growth. Construction and manufacturing were especially strong, posting percentage growth rates of 8.5 and 5.5 percent in FY 2015, respectively. Even public administration, which excludes schools from the government total, registered growth.

Growth in construction wages does not signal a rebound in single family...