Spying from Space: Reconnaissance Satellites and Interstate Disputes

• Author: Bryan R. Early,Erik Gartzke
• Published date: 01 October 2021
• Date: 01 October 2021
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0022002721995894
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Spying from Space:

Reconnaissance Satellites

and Interstate Disputes

Bryan R. Early

1

and Erik Gartzke

2

Abstract

Despite considerable interest and debate, it has proven surprisingly difficult to

demonstrate a systematic link between technological change and patterns of war and

peace. At least part of the challenge may reside in finding the right place to “look” for

such relationships. Technological change alters what nations can do to one another

(capabilities), but in ways that are typically reflected by deals (diplomatic bargains)

rather than actions. We theorize that reconnaissance satellites have revolutionized

the use of information gleaned from spying in ways that discourage states from

engaging in serious conflicts with one another. We analyze the impact of recon-

naissance satellites on high-casualty militarized interstate disputes (MIDS) between

dyads from 1950 to 2010. We find that when either the potential aggressor or target

in a dyad possess reconnaissance satellites, they are significantly less likely to become

involved in serious MIDs. This effect is especially powerful when both states possess

reconnaissance satellites.

Keywords

conflict, militarized interstate disputes, reconnaissance, satellites, technology

Advance knowledge cannot be gained from ghosts and spirits, inferred from phenom-

ena, or projected from the measures of Heaven, but must be gained from men for it is

the knowledge of the enemy’s true situation.

—Sun Tzu (Sawyer 1984, 231)

1

Political Science, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany, SUNY, NY, USA

2

Political Science, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Bryan R. Early, Political Science, University at Albany, SUNY, Milne Hall, Albany, NY 12222, USA.

Email: bearly@albany.edu

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2021, Vol. 65(9) 1551-1575

ªThe Author(s) 2021

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0022002721995894

journals.sagepub.com/home/jcr

[P]hoto-reconnaissance satellites, for example, are enormously important in stabilizing

world affairs and thereby make a significant contribution to the security of all nations.

—President J. Carter (1981, 146)

For centuries, one of the most valuable but elusive factors in both politics and

warfare has been information about the capabilities and intentions of other nations

or groups. A state with “eyes in the sky” is much better equipped to anticipate and to

react to the actions of a foreign power. So, how do reconnaissance satellites affect

international relations and, especially, interstate conflict?

An intuitive approach to this question involves assessing the relative effects of

satellites on offensive versus defensive military operations. President Jimmy Carter

claimed reconnaissance satellites fostered peace, perhaps by disproportionately ben-

efitting the defense. Yet, knowledge of enemy activity is doubtless valuable to both

sides in a crisis. Sun Tzu’s aphorism implies that intelligence is an integral compo-

nent of the offense as well as defense. Satellite reconnaissance would seem at first

glance to offer major distributional benefits to those that possess it, and to impose

significant liabilities on those that do not. The desire of nations to acquire recon-

naissance satellites, and the reluctance of most countries to share satellite technology

with others, speaks to zero-sum elements of spying from space. How then can this

technology prove pacifying?

Sun Tzu’s quote also suggests a second consequence of space surveillance.

Historically, intelligence collection had to be kept secret to remain useful. Space

reconnaissance is “public” espionage; to a considerable extent, it is effective despite

being apparent to its targets. This transparency is a critical feature of satellite

reconnaissance, shaping its impact on world affairs.

War is a technological process. Scholars have long sought to show how technol-

ogy influences the onset, intensity, duration, or outcome of interstate violence. To

date, however, systematic evidence of relationships between weapons and war has

proven elusive (Gortzak, Haftel, and Sweeney 2005). Factors that would seem to

make victory more likely for one side in a contest often have little or no discernable

effect on whether states fight (Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman 1988). Faced with a

more capable adversary, countries anticipate defeat, making aggression less likely

for one side, but more probable for the other (Whittman 1979). The very effects that

are highlighted by researchers are also anticipated by authorities, leading to rela-

tively little behavioral evidence on the actual battlefield (Fearon 1995; Powell

1999). Put another way, if the effects of technology are great, then political actors

have incentives to nullify these effects.

Observing the impact of technology on conflict thus involves identifying settings

where advantages are unlikely to be obscured by strategy or negotiation. We focus

on one such setting, space reconnaissance . We begin with a brief discussion of

technology and war, explaining why there is so little systemic evidence of changes

in political behavior—despite intuitive arguments to the contrary. We then explore

1552 Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(9)