Spring has sprung but the Middle East remains a muddle.

• Author: Marsh, Gerald E.
• Position: Worldview - Arab Spring, 2010- - Report

"A key to understanding the current situation in the Middle East is to recognize that the primary identity of its people is not with the state, but rather with their religion, sect, tribe, and family."

THE ARAB SPRING was a dramatic result of a policy failure on the part of Arab countries. For many decades, they have used the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to divert the attention of their own citizens, the so-called "Arab Street," from their own economic and domestic failure to deliver a decent life to their people. Yet, in the end, the forces behind the Arab Spring had nothing to do with the Israelis and none of the participants blamed Israel. Nonetheless, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict remains far too valuable a tool for manipulating public opinion for Arab nations actually to allow a settlement to occur. This especially is true for Iran, but for different reasons. They have little to worry about since the political and ideological split of the Palestinian people between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority leaves no credible and trustworthy leadership with whom to negotiate. No comprehensive settlement is in the cards for years, if not decades, to come.

A key to understanding the current situation in the Middle East is to recognize that the primary identity of its people is not with the state, but rather with their religion, sect, tribe, and family. Following World War I, which ended some four centuries of Islamic Ottoman role, Arab nationalism was imposed on the Middle East by the colonial powers of the West. Under the Ottomans, the caliph ruled not only as a head of state, but as a sovereign who was the head of Sunni Islam.

Islamists believe that the modern failures of the Muslim world are a result of modernization following World War I and the imposition of nationalism. They believe that the greatness of the past can be had only by a return to a purely Islamic way of life--although they presumably also want to retain some of the benefits of modern technology, even if they reject the world view that led to their creation.

With the advent of the Arab Spring, Islamists are in ascension and are likely to role much of the Middle East in the not so distant future. They already have come to the fore in Egypt and Tunisia and, as of this writing, probably soon will have a major influence in Syria. In Libya, the outcome remains unclear, although it does not bode well for the future that Qatar has been providing shipments of weapons to Abdel Hakim Belhai, who founded the now-disbanded Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which was listed by the U.S. State Department as a foreign terrorist organization.

Afghanistan and Pakistan also are likely to be taken over by Islamists not too long after the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

While Mali and other parts of Africa are not in the Middle East, and therefore not part of the discussion here, there, too, the Islamists have become a major destructive and polarizing force.

If the nations coming under Islamic role are poor, we can expect a religious and social structure not unlike that which is found in Pakistan or Afghanistan. If the nations are rich, usually from resource wealth, one has the model of the Gulf states and especially Saudi Arabia where, as put by Michael Totten in The New York Times, "Religious edicts are crushingly enforced by state, mosque, and society [where] men have it rough, but women have it much rougher. According to Wahhabi Islam, men must obey Allah and women must obey men."

This form of intolerant Islam results in the Shia Muslims of the oil rich Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia being oppressed and rejected as heretics. One also should remember that, after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces from Afghanistan, it was Saudi-funded madrassas that led to the Taliban.

One of the key players today is the Muslim Brotherhood. It was founded in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna and generally is considered to be the most influential of all Islamic organizations. Worldwide, the Muslim Brotherhood claims to have a presence in some 80 countries. It especially is strong in parts of Europe. With the Arab Spring, it now has, for the first time, emerged publicly as a major political force in the Middle East. Hamas, established in 1987, has its origins in the Muslim Brotherhood and well could be considered its Palestinian chapter. Islamic Jihad, founded by Fathi Shaqaqi and other radical students in Egypt, also has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood and split from them in...