South Bend and Elkhart forecast 2022.

• Author: Zhuang, Hong

In 2021, both the South Bend-Mishawaka and Elkhart-Goshen MSAs saw economic recovery, but at different paces. South Bend-Mishawaka added new jobs, although its labor force remained soft in 2021 -- and still significantly below the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Elkhart-Goshen, on the other hand, recovered all its lost labor force and employment eight months into 2021, and its labor force and employment were slightly above the 2019 numbers. Both areas saw a leap in their labor cost. In addition, the St. Joseph County housing market had more new single-family home construction and soaring prices for existing homes.

Labor force and employment

Based on the household survey from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the combined region's labor force gained 5,588 from 2020 and averaged 273,644 in the first eight months of 2021. (1) Figure 1 illustrates the monthly trends of the labor force and employment of the combined region. (2) The labor force in the South Bend MSA was similar to the 2020 level, yet was still 4,374 below the 2019 figure. (3) On the other hand, Elkhart-Goshen MSA's labor force expanded further in 2021 and reached 115,226, which was 5,757 more than the labor force in 2020 and 1,834 above the 2019 level. (4)

The average employment in the combined region reached 261,961 in the first eight months of 2021 and was 19,119 jobs more than one year ago (+7.9%). The South Bend-Mishawaka MSA added 6,989 jobs (+4.9%), and the Elkhart-Goshen MSA gained 12,130 jobs (+12.2%). In comparison, both MSAs outpaced the U.S. national employment growth rate, which was 3.0% in 2021. South Bend-Mishawaka's capacity to add jobs is similar to Indiana's rate of 4.8%. Elkhart-Goshen's impressive job growth far surpassed the state rate of employment growth.

Unemployment

Both metropolitan areas saw declining unemployment rates in 2021. Figure 2 illustrates the South Bend-Mishawaka and Elkhart-Goshen MSAs' unemployment rates from January 2001 to August 2021. Specifically, the January-August average unemployment rate in South Bend-Mishawaka was 5.0%, down from the 9.6% average jobless rate in 2020. However, this figure is still above the pre-pandemic rate of 3.7% in 2019. Elkhart-Goshen's unemployment rate averaged 3.2% in 2021, much lower than its 2020 rate of unemployment (9.5%) and comparable to its pre-pandemic rate of 3.1% in 2019. Elkhart-Goshen's unemployment rate is lower than the national (6.0%) and state (4.5%) unemployment rates. Meanwhile, South Bend-Mishawaka's unemployment rate is about 0.5 percentage point higher than the state jobless rate and 1 percentage point below the national rate.

Employment by industry

Turning to the payroll statistics of business establishments...