South Bend and Elkhart forecast 2018.

AuthorZhuang, Hong
PositionStatistical data

The South Bend-Mishawaka Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and Elkhart-Goshen MSA in 2017 experienced stronger economic growth, lower unemployment rates, moderate growth in wages and a more prosperous housing market. Yet, the labor market imbalance is evident with a smaller labor force and lower employment levels in South Bend-Mishawaka, but an expanded labor force and higher employment levels in Elkhart-Goshen.

Real metropolitan GDP

The combined economy of the South Bend-Mishawaka and Elkhart-Goshen MSAs grew strongly in 2016. (1) The total real metropolitan gross domestic product (RGDP) in 2016 surpassed 2015 by nearly $1.2 million, a rise of 4.6 percent. (2) Specifically, the economic performance in the Elkhart-Goshen MSA was more pronounced than the South-Bend-Mishawaka MSA by adding $838 million to its real GDP, about 6.5 percent in output growth. The South Bend-Mishawaka MSA grew moderately at 2.7 percent in its aggregate production, gaining $318 million. However, the aggregate production in the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA was still $205 million below its peak level before the 2007 recession, despite the continuous growth of the past three years.

Labor force and employment

The joint labor force in the two metropolitan areas expanded modestly over the year, adding 3,348 workers to the local labor force (see Figure 1). (3) In August 2017, the total labor force in the combined region was 268,111 workers, exceeding the June 2007 pre-recession level of 264,700 workers. A larger local labor force signals an improved local labor market and economic expansion when more residents actively look for jobs. In particular, the labor force in Elkhart-Goshen increased by 4,441 workers, whereas South Bend-Mishawaka lost 1,093 workers in its labor force.

The number of people employed in the combined region grew from 253,436 in August 2016 to 258,146 in August 2017. The Elkhart-Goshen MSA added 5,057 workers, while employment in the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA declined slightly by 347. The 4.8 percent increase in Elkhart-Goshen's employment was far above the national average growth rate of employment of 1.2 percent and the state average rate of 1.0 percent; however, the 0.2 percent job loss in the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA was below the national and state averages in 2017.

Unemployment

Under the dynamics of labor force and employment change, the unemployment rates in both MSAs declined over the year. The South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's unemployment rate settled...

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