South Bend and Elkhart forecast 2019.

• Author: Zhuang, Hong

The South Bend-Mishawaka Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in 2018 experienced some economic growth, lower unemployment rates, a minor increase in the wage rate and a more prosperous housing market. The Elkhart-Goshen MSA in 2018 demonstrated stunning growth in aggregate production and job creation. The unemployment rate remained steadily low, and income grew moderately in 2018.

Real metropolitan GDP

The combined economy of the South Bend-Mishawaka and Elkhart-Goshen MSAs had a very strong year of growth in 2017 with total real metropolitan gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding 2016 by $1.6 billion, a rise of 6.3 percent. (1) The majority of this regional growth came from Elkhart-Goshen, which added $1.5 billion in its real GDP, a magical rate of 11.3 percent output growth. (2) Real GDP in the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA only expanded by $71 million, a 0.6 percent increase from 2016. Moreover, compared with real GDP in 2007, aggregate production in South Bend-Mishawaka was still $269 million below its pre-recession peak.

Labor force and employment

The labor market in the combined areas expanded strongly over the year, with a total labor force of 276,118 workers in August 2018 (see Figure 1). (3) Compared to August 2017, the total labor force in the two metropolitan areas added 8,068 workers and surpassed the June 2007 pre-recession level of 264,700 workers. A bigger labor force indicates improved economic conditions that stimulate more residents to actively look for work. More specifically, Elkhart-Goshen's labor force grew by an additional 6,362, while South Bend-Mishawaka gained an additional 1,706 people in the labor force in the past year.

Employment expanded in the combined region as well with 266,322 workers employed in August 2018, compared to 258,314 workers employed in August 2017. The bulk of the employment increase came from the Elkhart-Goshen MSA, which added 6,106 new employees. The contribution from the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA was 1,902 new employees. The year-over-year employment growth rate in August 2018 was approximately 5.6 percent in Elkhart-Goshen, far above the national average growth rate of 1.3 percent and the state average rate of 2.5 percent. On the other hand, the year-over-year employment growth rate in August 2018 was 1.3 percent in South Bend-Mishawaka, on par with the national rate but less than the state rate.

Unemployment

Since the labor force and employment have increased at a similar pace, unemployment...