South Bend and Elkhart area forecast 2011.

• Author: Agbetsiafa, Douglas
• Position: Economy - Statistical data

The Michiana region, which includes the Elkhart-Goshen MSA and the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA, (1) is still recovering from the 2007-2009 recession (2) and has begun to enjoy vigorous business growth despite the weak economy. This trend toward recovery is likely to continue throughout 2011.

Employment

After a fairly steady drop in the labor force the past few years, the 2010 data for the combined Elkhart-Goshen and South Bend-Mishawaka MSAs indicate a leveling out in the area's labor market. (3) While the labor force continued its decline, it is declining at a slower rate, with a drop of about 6,500 workers from September 2009 to September 2010 (see Figure 1); the prior year's decline was more than double that figure.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

The Elkhart-Goshen MSA had some of the worst unemployment rates in the nation during the recession, warranting visits from President Obama in early 2009.(4) The Elkhart-Goshen unemployment rate peaked in March 2009 at 20.1 percent and has since dropped to 13 percent in September 2010, still high but definitely an improvement (see Figure 2).

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

The South Bend-Mishawaka MSA did not see as drastic a climb in its unemployment rate, though it is still much higher than it was pre-recession at 11 percent in September 2010. This metro has a notably lower concentration in manufacturing than the Elkhart-Goshen MSA that likely contributed to its less drastic jump. As both metropolitan areas improve in 2011, the unemployment rate should decline to 9.5 percent in the South Bend-Mishawaka metro and 11 percent in the Elkhart-Goshen area.

Table 1 shows employment data by industry for the Michiana region. While jobs in the MSAs are still down 46,500 from where they were in September 2007, a look at the more recent data shows some positive signs. Combined total nonfarm jobs were down 1,500 (-0.6 percent) in September 2010 compared to their September 2009 levels. That may not sound all that positive unless one considers that nonfarm employment dropped 6.5 percent from 2007 to 2008 and 10.4 percent from 2008 to 2009 (using data from September of each year). Thus, it looks like the worst is behind us and job losses are moderating.

* TABLE 1: Employment by Industry and Metro Area, September 2010 Elkhart-Goshen South Bend-Mishawaka Industry Employment Change Employment Change since since September September 2009 2009 Total Nonfarm 100,100 1,000 130,500 -2,500 Natural Resources, 3,300 -100 4,800 -400 Mining and...