South Bend/Mishawaka and Elkhart/Goshen.

• Author: Joray, Paul A.
• Position: Indiana Metro Areas - Economic indicators

To help understand how we came to where we are today, Table 1 and Figure 1 provide data from 1994 to the middle of 2004 that chart the longer-term progress of the Michiana region, of which South Bend/Mishawaka and Elkhart/Goshen are a major part. The index uses 1986 as the base period and employs monthly averages of seasonally adjusted index numbers.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Employment growth in the South Bend economy mirrored the sluggish growth experienced by the national and state economies. During 2003, South Bend's total nonagricultural employment decreased by 0.2 percent, with manufacturing employment contracting by 1.9 percent and nonmanufacturing employment increasing by a modest 0.1 percent.

Employment growth in Elkhart, for the second year in a row, outpaced South Bend, the nation, and the state. Elkhart's total nonagricultural employment grew by 1.9 percent, with manufacturing expanding by 2.4 percent and nonmanufacturing advancing by 1.5 percent.

The contraction of manufacturing employment in South Bend and its expansion in Elkhart derived largely from each economy's differing fortunes in the transportation equipment sector (as defined by the Standard Industrial Classification--SIC 37). In South Bend, transportation equipment remained strong throughout 2002, ending the period with an 11 percent increase (500 more jobs). This upswing likely resulted from the strong sales following the initial launch of the Hummer H2 sport utility vehicle. But in 2003, Hummer H2 sales weakened because of the natural moderation in sales that follows the successful introduction of a new vehicle. Consequently, SIC 37 employment failed to grow. Further, manufacturing employment in South Bend's other durable and nondurable manufacturing continued the downward trend of 2002 into 2003, contributing to the overall weakness in manufacturing. In Elkhart, SIC 37, primarily fueled by the robustness of the booming recreational vehicle market, increased by 5,200 jobs from December 2001 to December 2002, a 24.8 percent boost, and added another 1,600 jobs between December 2002 and December 2003, a 6.5 percent change. During 2003, nonmanufacturing employment advanced in South Bend by 0.1 percent. Employment expanded in retail trade (1.7 percent), leisure and hospitality (5.8 percent), and government (2.0 percent). Offsetting most of these gains were employment declines in natural resources and construction (-4.6 percent), wholesale trade (-1.4 percent), professional and...