South Bend/Mishawaka and Elkhart/Goshen.

• Author: Joray, Paul A.

To help understand how we came to where we are today, Table 1 and Figure 1 chart the longer term progress of the Michiana region, of which South Bend/Mishawaka and Elkhart/Goshen are a major part. The index numbers in Table 1 and Figure 1 use 1986 as the base period and employ monthly averages of seasonally adjusted index numbers. They highlight how much the growth, volatility, and nature of the Elkhart/Goshen and South Bend/Mishawaka economies have differed over the past decade. For example, the South Bend/ Mishawaka economy's growth (as measured by employment) over the past decade has mirrored that of the State of Indiana. Indeed, the patterns of growth--the strong expansion from 1993 to 1996, followed by a period of more moderate growth from 1996 to 2000, and then a period of declining employment from 2000 to 2002--are nearly identical for South Bend/Mishawaka and the State of Indiana. In comparison, Elkhart/Goshen grew more rapidly than South Bend/Mishawaka and the State of Indiana during the 1993 to 1996 and 1998 to 2000 periods, declined more sharply from 2000 to 2001, and has started to rebound more strongly since then.

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Basic Industries

These contrasting results largely reflect the diversity of South Bend/Mishawaka and Elkhart/Goshen's basic industries. Basic industries produce goods or services that are purchased by buyers outside the metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and in the short-term, a smaller economy's basic industries tend to be the driving force that determines its growth or decline. All eleven of Indiana's metropolitan areas are sensitive to the ups and downs of manufacturing industries, particularly to the transportation equipment sector (SIC 37). But for Elkhart/Goshen, manufacturing represents one-half of its total employment and constitutes virtually all of its basic employment, it follows, as seen in Table 1 and Figure 1, that strong overall employment growth or decline in Elkhart/Goshen closely parallels periods of growth or decline in recreational vehicles, manufactured housing, band instruments, and other Elkhart/Goshen-based manufacturing industries. Manufacturing in South Bend/ Mishawaka, on the other hand, accounts for only about one-sixth of its total employment and one-half of its basic employment; and South Bend/Mishawaka's employment growth thus depends on a much broader range of basic activities.

Research on Sooth Bend/Mishawaka's basic industries reveals that, in addition to various manufacturing industries, South Bend/Mishawaka's major basic industries include medical care services, business services, a variety of retail services, higher education services, and services related to tourism (such as services to fans who come to South Bend/Mishawaka for Notre...