Solidaridades moribundas.
Author | Gutiérrez, Santiago |
Position | Crisis económica en Venezuela |
[ILUSTRACIÓN OMITIR]
El gobierno de Venezuela no estaba al tanto de las conversaciones entre Estados Unidos y Cuba. La negociación dividió en la práctica a La Habana y Caracas.
Venezuela no cambiará de régimen este año. Cuando Nicolás Maduro no pueda contener la inflación que superará el 60 por ciento y que será la más alta del planeta, cuando la población enfrente mayores racionamientos por cuenta de una profunda recesión económica--el Fondo Monetario calcula una caída de 7 por ciento en el PIB para este año--, los chavistas cambiarán de cara, pero no dejarán el poder.
El desprestigio de Maduro es bien evidente. Las encuestas de Datanálisis le daban una opinión favorable de apenas 24 por ciento en noviembre, un número que lo pondría entre los mandatarios menos queridos, sino el menos, del continente. Lo que viene no parece ser más favorable para él si se mantiene la reiterada negativa de los países "amigos" de ayudarle financieramente a Caracas sin contraprestaciones heroicas.
Sin embargo, eso no quiere decir que la oposición tenga el camino abierto para ganar en las elecciones parlamentarias de finales del año, o que las condiciones estén puestas para que el timón de Venezuela cambie de manos.
Muchos piensan que en las nuevas circunstancias el chavismo intensificará su acción contra la oposición. Como lo señala la investigadora de Brookings, Vanda Felbab-Brown, eso no sería nada nuevo. Lo mismo ha pasado en Burma y muchos otros países donde casi se ha demostrado que las crisis económicas no tumban ese tipo de gobiernos.
¿Quién relevará a Maduro? Difícil...
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