Solid Fiscal Foundation Nowhere to Be Found.
Position | POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMY |
The baseline projections by the Congressional Budget Office are a strong reminder that the budget is on an unsustainable path, not because of the massive short-term deficit spending incurred to support the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, but because of a pre-existing gap between spending and revenues that will keep growing wider long after the pandemic has passed, cautions the Concord Coalition, Arlington, Va.
Policymakers need to view these numbers with bifocals; one lens for the current crisis, which primarily is driven by the response to the coronavirus, and a separate lens for long-term policy, which is driven by structural issues such as demographic changes, health care costs, and potential economic growth.
It is true that the budget will not recover until the economy recovers and the economy will not recover until the virus is brought under control. Deficit concerns thus should be suspended for the emergency, but only for purposes of treating the emergency.
"Going big" on unrelated spending simply is adding to the debt without hastening the end of the pandemic and could create further risks to the economy in the years ahead.
As the debate turns from the current crisis to the post-pandemic economy, policymakers will need to craft an agenda that is both pro-growth and fiscally responsible. An agenda premised on ever-low interest rates and ever-rising debt is not a solid foundation for a sustainable budget or a growing economy.
Here are some 2022-31 fiscal facts from CBO's report that confront the Biden Administration and Congress:
* By 2031, the last year of CBO's 10-year outlook, the deficit will be...
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