Social Disorganization and Urban Homicide Rates: A Spatial-Temporal Analysis in São Paulo, Brazil 2000 to 2015

• Author: Amy Nivette,Maria Fernanda Tourinho Peres
• Published date: 01 August 2022
• Date: 01 August 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10887679211010883
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10887679211010883

Homicide Studies

2022, Vol. 26(3) 219 –243

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DOI: 10.1177/10887679211010883

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Articles

Social Disorganization and

Urban Homicide Rates: A

Spatial-Temporal Analysis

in São Paulo, Brazil

2000 to 2015

Amy Nivette1 and Maria Fernanda Tourinho Peres2

Abstract

This study aims to contribute to understanding urban spatial and temporal patterns

of social disorganization and homicide rates in São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2015).

Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial panel regression techniques, we

describe spatial-temporal patterns of homicide rates and assess to what extent social

disorganization can explain between-district variation in homicide trajectories. The

results showed some variation in the pattern of homicide decline across districts, and

less disorganized communities experienced earlier, more linear declines. However,

we found no evidence to suggest that changes in social disorganization are associated

with differences in the decline in homicide rates.

Keywords

social disorganization, structural correlates, spatial analysis, homicide decline, trends,

mapping

In the past three decades, homicide rates have declined dramatically in cities across

much of the western world (Baumer & Wolff, 2014; Farrell et al., 2010; Goertzel et al.,

2013), but continue to rise in many parts of Latin America (Tuttle et al., 2018). Closer

examination of spatial and temporal variation in homicide rates reveals significant

heterogeneity between and within Latin American countries (Muggah et al., 2016).

1Department of Sociology, Utrecht University, The Netherlands

2Department of Preventive Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, Brazil

Corresponding Author:

Amy Nivette, Department of Sociology, Utrecht University, Padualaan 14, Utrecht 3584 CH,

The Netherlands.

Email: a.e.nivette@uu.nl

1010883HSXXXX10.1177/10887679211010883Homicide StudiesNivette and Peres

research-article2021

220 Homicide Studies 26(3)

In Brazil, where national homicide rates have risen steadily since 1980, the municipal-

ity of São Paulo has experienced a dramatic reversal and decline in the early 2000s

(Goertzel & Kahn, 2009). Between 2000 and 2007, the number of homicides fell by

78% (Freire, 2018). Known as the “great São Paulo homicide drop,” the case has been

the subject of scientific scrutiny and debate over the possible causes contributing to

the decline (De Mello & Schneider, 2010; Freire, 2018; Goertzel & Kahn, 2009;

Goertzel et al., 2013; Peres et al., 2012).

However, homicide rates are highly unequal across urban space (Baumer et al.,

2018; Ceccato et al., 2007; Cohen & Tita, 1999; Light & Harris, 2012; Ye & Wu,

2011). Spatial analyses suggest that homicide is concentrated in poorer, socially disor-

ganized neighborhoods within cities (Ceccato & Oberwittler, 2008; de Melo et al.,

2017; Escobar, 2012; Morenoff et al., 2001; Valasik et al., 2017; Zeoli et al., 2014).

Social disorganization refers to the process by which ecological conditions such as

poverty, high residential mobility, and poor living conditions weaken community

capacity to build ties and collectively regulate social norms (Kawachi et al., 1999;

Sampson & Groves, 1989; Sampson et al., 1997).

Despite this growing attention to variations in homicide declines in Latin American

cities, few studies have assessed the extent of variation at smaller spatial units of

analysis (Pereira et al., 2017). By assessing spatial-temporal patterns of homicide rates

within a single city, we will be better able to understand the uniformity of the decline

between districts, and disentangle the extent to which trends are driven by socio-eco-

nomic structural transformations compared to other shared underlying factors (Tuttle

et al., 2018). This study therefore aims to contribute to knowledge on urban spatial and

temporal patterns of social disorganization and homicide using the case study of São

Paulo. Specifically, we explore variation in temporal patterns of homicide rates

between districts in São Paulo, and assess to what extent trajectories can be explained

by social disorganization.

Social Disorganization and Homicide Rates

Researchers aiming to understand why crime is concentrated in poor urban communi-

ties typically draw on social disorganization theory (Shaw & McKay, 1942; Stults,

2010). Recent developments in social disorganization theory focus on how the struc-

tural characteristics of disadvantaged neighborhoods, such as residential instability

and poverty, disrupt the social ties, and networks necessary to foster informal social

control (Sampson & Groves, 1989; Sampson et al., 1997; Hipp & Wickes, 2017).

While there is ample cross-sectional evidence that residents in socially disorga-

nized communities are at higher risk for violent crime and homicide (e.g., Breetzke,

2010; de Melo et al., 2017; Hipp & Wickes, 2017; Pereira et al., 2017; Vilalta &

Muggah, 2014), evidence is less clear whether changes in social disorganization lead

to changes in homicide rates (Steenbeek & Hipp, 2011; Stults, 2010). Longitudinal

studies of social disorganization and violence are scarce (Wickes & Hipp, 2018). One

issue is that structural characteristics of neighborhoods are “remarkably stable” in

their relative ranking over time (Sampson & Morenoff, 2006, p. 199), particularly