Sixteenth Annual Conference on Macroeconomics.

The NBER's Sixteenth Annual Conference on Macroeconomics took place in Cambridge on April 2021. Ben S. Bernanke of NBER and Princeton University and Kenneth Rogoff of NBER and Harvard University served as organizers and put together this agenda:

Ben S. Bernanke and Refet Gurkaynak, Princeton University, "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously"

Discussants: David Romer, NBER and University of California, Berkeley, and Francesco Caselli, NBER and Harvard University

Philip Lane, Trinity College Dublin, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, International Monetary Fund, "Perspectives on International Borrowing and Lending" Discussants: Kristin Forbes, NBER and MIT, and Jeffrey Frankel, NBER and Harvard University

Robert Barsky, NBER and University of Michigan, and Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan, "A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s" (NBER Working Paper No. 7547)

Discussants: Oliver Blanchard, NBER and MIT, and Alan Blinder, NBER and Princeton University

Marvin J. Barth III, Federal Reserve Board, and Valerie Ramey, NBER and University of California, San Diego, "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission" (NBER Working Paper No. 7675)

Discussants: Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and Simon Gilchrist, NBER and Boston University

Xavier Gabaix, MIT, and David Laibson, NBER and Harvard University, "The 6D Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle"

Discussants: Anthony Lynch, New York University, and Monika Piazzesi, University of California, Los Angeles

Tim Cogley, Arizona State University, and Thomas Sargent, NBER and Stanford University, "Evolving Post-World War II Inflation Dynamics"

Discussants: Christopher Sims, NBER and Princeton University, and James Stock, NBER and Harvard University

Is long-run economic growth exogenous? To address this question, Bernanke and Gurkaynak show that the empirical framework of Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) can be extended to test any growth model that admits a balanced growth path. Their broad conclusion, based on model estimation and growth accounting, is that long-run growth is significantly correlated with behavioral variables such as savings rates and population growth rates, and that this correlation is not explained easily by models (such as the Ramsey model) in which growth is treated as the exogenous variable. Hence, future research should focus on models that exhibit endogenous growth.

International financial integration allows countries to become...