The sick man of asia: Russia's endangered Far East.

• Author: Menon, Rajan

RUSSIA ACQUIRED its Far East (Dal'nii vostok) the old fashioned way, through war and conquest. The imperialism of the Muscovite state, its Romanov successors and finally Josef Stalin's Red Army fixed the region's current borders with China, Japan and North Korea. The balance of power favored Russia's accumulation of land in these earlier times; its present weakness has cast doubt on its ability to retain all of the territory it now holds. The forces that pushed Russia into the forbidding vastness of what is now its Far East--migration, economic growth and military superiority over weak neighbors--seem poised to reverse course, with potentially disruptive consequences for the entire region.

The Russian Far East is a gaggle of territorial units varying in size and shape. (1) A vast expanse of 6.2 million square kilometers three-fourths the size of the "Lower Forty-Eight" U.S. states, the Far East occupies more than a third of Russia's landmass and contains a cornucopia of oil, gas, timber, gold, diamonds, fish, coal and assorted industrial raw materials. Yet no more than 7 percent of Russia's population lives there. Emigration (10 percent of the Russian Far East's population has left since 1991) and a mortality rate that exceeds the birth rate (as is the case in Russia as a whole) ensure that the region's population will dwindle further. The Far East is also isolated from Russia's traditional centers of power in Europe: even its western fringe is more than 5,000 kilometers from Moscow, and its eastern flank, seven time zones away, nudges China, Japan and the Korean peninsula. Since distance dilutes power--the farther a region is from the center, the greater the limits on central control--the Russian Far East is too large to be administered by fiat from a remote capital.

The problem posed by these geographic and demographic attributes is aggravated by the strategic equation in Northeast Asia, which has moved steadily against Russia over the past decade. This growing disadvantage in relative power matters all the more because Russia lacks reliable allies in this neighborhood. Indeed, Northeast Asia's major powers have a troubled history with Russia, one that features war and territorial disputes.

Together, these facts of size, power, distance, geography, demography and history raise a stark question: Will the Russian Far East remain Russian? The weakening, or loss, of Russia's control over its Far East, which would have consequences for American interests in Northeast Asia, could occur in three ways: separatism; a decline in Russian power that leaves this resource-rich region ripe for the taking; or creeping Chinese hegemony (a "reverse Manchurian" scenario, defined as preponderant influence without formal territorial control). To further paint this bleak picture, however, we must proceed with a brief account of how Russia acquired its Far East.

How the East Was Won

RUSSIA BEGAN its centuries-long eastward expansion in the 17th century. In the northern areas of what is now its Far East, indigenous people were subjugated with brutal ease and their land annexed. The pattern in the southern parts was different: China (albeit in a weakened state), Japan and the Western powers exerted a countervailing force. Territorial gains came more slowly and entailed an admixture of diplomacy and force. China's weaknesses made the task easier: Its Qing dynasty was in decline and losing legitimacy because of its fecklessness in the face of foreigners' encroachments and demands.

The Treaty of Aigun (May 1858)--a classic product of statecraft backed by raw power--established the border between Russia and China at the Amur and Ussuri rivers. It was followed in November 1860 by the Treaty of Peking, which gave Russia the land between the Ussuri river and the Pacific Ocean in exchange for its intercession to lift the Anglo-French blockade of the Chinese capital. The two treaties, which Mao Zedong later called the "unequal treaties", added nearly 650,000 square kilometers to the Russian empire--territory that, as early as the Eastern Zhou dynasty (770-256 BCE), had been under Chinese suzerainty and recognized by Russia as Chinese territory in the 1689 Treaty of Nerchinsk. Russia cemented its hold over them by sponsoring migration from the western parts of the empire and by building towns, military outposts and the Trans-Siberian railroad (begun in 1891 and completed in 1905).

In Manchuria, annexation was a precluded option for Russia because Japan and the Western powers had acquired important stakes there. But China's troubles--which included defeat by Japan in the war of 1894-5--did enable Russia to establish a strong presence. The most impressive manifestation was the Chinese Eastern Railroad (CER), which sliced through Manchuria, linking the Russian city of Irkutsk south of Lake Baikal and the Pacific port of Vladivostok. It eventually included a spur running south to Harbin. Russia also secured a lease at the end of the Liaodong peninsula, plus the Port Arthur naval base and the port of Dairen. Immigration and 100,000 troops secured Russia's position in Manchuria at the dawn of the new century.

Russia's gains in the islands of the North Pacific grew out of the convergence of Russian and Japanese power from different directions starting in the late 18th century. Russia initially had the upper hand. As Japan faced western pressure to open itself to trade, Vice Admiral Evgenii Putiatin concluded the Treaty of Shimoda (1858), which divided the Kurile archipelago between Russia and Japan--Russia received the islands north of Etorofu--and created joint control in Sakhalin. Under the 1875 Treaty of Petersburg, Russia acquired all of Sakhalin, and Japan the entire Kurile island chain.

But Japan's trajectory was different than China's. Rejuvenated by the reforms that followed the Meiji Restoration and its confidence supplemented by the 1902 alliance with Britain, Japan began to contest Russian expansion. The culmination was Russia's stunning defeat in the 1904-5 Russo-Japanese war, the result of its arrogant refusal to take Japan seriously. Russia could not mobilize adequate military manpower in its Far East or reinforce the region quickly enough through the 6,000 kilometer Trans-Siberian railroad. When it responded to Japan's destruction of its Pacific Fleet by sending its Baltic Fleet around the world, the Japanese sunk the weary armada in the Tsushima Straits.

Only Sergei Witte's masterful diplomacy allowed Russia to get off lightly at the Portsmouth negotiations. Under the treaty that resulted, Russia yielded to Japan the Liaodong peninsula lease, the rail line to Port Arthur and Dairen, and southern Sakhalin, but retained the rest of the CER and a sphere of influence in northern Manchuria--until evicted completely in 1931.

At the end of World War II Russia was quick to recoup its losses in Manchuria. Soviet troops poured into the former sphere of influence in 1945, pillaging Japanese-owned raw material and equipment in the process. As Japan's surrender became a certainty, Stalin secured control of the CER and a lease on the Liaodong peninsula--including Port Arthur and nearby Dairen--from Chiang Kai-shek--gains that were soon sacrificed on the altar of proletarian internationalism once the Chinese Communist Party took over China in 1949. But the Red Army's reconquest of southern Sakhalin and the islands of Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and the Habomais endured, and rightful ownership of the latter group of islands, located at the southern end of the Kuriles, remains disputed between Russia and Japan.

In contrast to its ascendancy over the past several centuries, Russia's current weakness and sense of vulnerability contrasts with China's surge in power and confidence. This turnabout explains why the scenario of a Manchuria in reverse--the inexorable expansion of China's economic, demographic and political presence in the Russian Far East--figures prominently in Russian and Western assessments. Another outcome, also often discussed in tandem with Chinese hegemony, is the secession of the Far East as Moscow becomes too weak to retain it through coercion and too poor to hold it through co-optation.

Breaking Up Is Hard to Do

THE RUSSIAN Far East's future will turn on its relationship with the central government. Inept policies from Moscow could provoke people in the region to question the value of remaining within the Russian Federation, generating upheaval inside the Far East and squabbles with Moscow. The ensuing instability will give rising powers opportunities and motives to seize the first mover's advantage in a Northeast Asia that is bound to face competition and strategic transformation. (2) Stated differently, what happens within Russia's Far East will affect the behavior of other states, not vice versa. This may seem a dismal conclusion given Russia's many economic and social problems. But, fortunately, apocalyptic scenarios of secession are quite improbable.

Paradoxically, the reason for this optimistic prognosis is the Russian state's weakness. The Russian Federation is a far cry from the hyper-centralized Soviet Union. Regional leaders have a good deal more leeway, which they demonstrate in ways...