Should we fear Islamic fundamentalists?

• Author: McGuinn, Bradford R.

IT IS TEMPTING to dismiss the fundamentalists accused of bombing the World Trade Center and planning a host of other violent actions in New York as deranged fanatics, and amateurish ones at that. Yet, to do so is to ignore the fact that radical Islamists, in the U.S. and the Middle East, are pursuing an ambitious political agenda. It also is tempting to characterize the fundamentalists as a fringe group on the periphery of Middle Eastern politics, when, actually, their destabilizing activities are at the center of the region's troubles. Without illusions, Washington must recognize that the slow triumph of militant Islam in the Middle East not only will pose a major threat to the U.S.'s position in the region, but also will bring terrorism to American shores.

The U.S. and its Arab allies are losing steadily to Islamic forces energized by several new trends in the Middle East. The first of these is a crisis of authority. Throughout the region, a widening gap is evident between discredited state structures and increasingly active civil societies. Yesterday's radical shibboleths no longer can legitimatize authoritarian regimes. Even raw power no longer may be enough to suppress the growth of militant Islam. Grass-roots politics, from Morocco to the Persian Gulf, increasingly is Islamic in nature, and its adherents are scornful of the secular Arab order, peace with Israel, and American policy in the Middle East.

The second trend is the paradox of democracy. On the face of it, global democratization represents a vindication of the American experience and should work to the advantage of its regional allies. Yet, when given a choice, voters in the Middle East have rejected their authoritarian and pro-American incumbents, favoring instead parties claiming that "Islam is the solution.

The enthusiasm Islamists now evince for democracy may be merely tactical. Yet, they are correct in objecting to the U.S.'s selective support for democratization and its willingness to see elections abrogated if the results prove unfavorable, as occurred in Algeria.

Even if Washington's authoritarian Arab allies are able to keep the Islamists at bay, they may lose in the long run, through a process of generational change. This third trend is the "graying" of the Arab power-elite. Despite its reputation for turmoil, the outstanding characteristic of modern Arab politics has been the stability of its leadership. King Hussein has ruled Jordan since Pres. Dwight Eisenhower's day. Syria's Hafez al-Assad, Iraq's Saddam Hussein, Libya's Muammar...