Shoppers might start furling stores' sales.

• Author: Frank, Maggie
• Position: Retail trade trends

Economists don't always see eye to eye. And even when they do--most, for example, believe retail spending won't grow much in North Carolina this year--they often don't concur on the reason.

Jim Smith, a professor at Western Carolina University's Institute for the Economy and the Future, predicts that the $1 bump in the state minimum wage, which increased Jan. 1 to $6.15, will slacken sales. "People who don't produce enough to be paid that much will either never get hired or lose their jobs." Wachovia analyst Mark Vitner believes the latest hike "will tend to boost spending in stores teenagers frequent because most of the people who make the minimum wage are teenagers from relatively affluent households." He says a slowdown in the housing market could slow retail, too. "Folks are likely to pull back a little and spend in line with their incomes."

Statewide, retail grew 0.6% to $23.9 billion in 2006, according to John Con-naughton, an economics professor at UNC Charlotte. He predicts it will grow 0.1% this year, but as a percentage of gross state product, it will slip from 7.1% to 7%. Smith forecasts the gross state product of $367.3 billion in 2006 will grow about 2% but only after a mild recession he thinks will begin in May and end in November.

Results for 2006 were mixed for major North Carolina-based retailers. Moores-ville-based hardware retailer Lowe's reported same-store sales were down 4% in the third quarter compared with the previous year, and the company expected them to be down 4% to 6% in the fourth quarter. Matthews-based Family Dollar Stores, which operates more than 6,200 discount stores in 44 states, reported flat sales--up only 0.9% from the previous year. Earnings were up 6% for the fiscal year ended Aug. 26.

The Pantry added 113 stores during the fiscal year that ended in September and 57 more by early December, giving it more than 1,500 convenience stores in 11 states. The Sanford-based chain reported more than $6 billion in revenue for the 2006 fiscal year, with same-store sales up about 3%. Asheville-based Ingles Markets, which also ended its fiscal year in September, recorded record sales, $2.6 billion, up nearly 15% from the year before, and record net income, $42.6 million, up 60.3%. Same-store sales for the grocery chain were up 5.9%. Harris Teeter, a grocery-store subsidiary of Charlotte-based Ruddick, reported $2.9 billion in sales, up 10.5% from the year before, with same-store sales up 3.2%.

Charlotte-based...