Shifting sands: Coastal communities are working to shelter their busy economies from a changing environment.

• Author: Blake, Kathy
• Position: SPONSORED SECTION: REGIONAL REPORT: COASTAL CAROLINA

Dylan McNamara, a UNC Wilmington associate professor since 2008 and chairman of its physics and physical oceanography department, has always loved watching the ocean. But he will see it differently now that the National Science Foundation awarded his team a four-year $1.5 million grant in September. It'll fund a study that examines the interplay of the economy and public policies in a changing environment of rising sea levels and more frequent and powerful storms. It hopes to predict how people will react to climatic changes along the coastline.

McNamara, along with scientists and economists from Duke University, UNC Chapel Hill, East Carolina University and three out-of-state universities, will use computer modeling to analyze the relationships between man and Mother Nature. "We are heading into a critical phase where coastal communities will have to make important decisions about how they are going to adapt to the future. We are hoping we can inform some of that policy. Our goal is to understand the complex dynamics at play along human-occupied coastlines. Some of the work we've done leading up to the grant shows that people's perceptions of the amount of risk they're facing plays a significant role, so we need a better representation of the evolution of these communities going forward. Property values will change if people see risks increasing. The insurance markets will change, as well as the affordability of the engineering that's done. And this is what we're hoping to explore."

McNamara's not sure how his study's findings will shape life along the coast. "I don't have an answer to how people are going to respond regarding investment and infrastructure and how people utilize the coastline as an economic market. We'll be doing our best to put that information in front of the towns we're studying." Whichever course they choose, these communities have plenty to protect.

North Carolina's 301-mile coast is home to a diverse economy driven by logistics, defense, manufacturing, health care and tourism industries. Dare County's Economic Development and Diversification Strategic Plan, for example, estimates College of The Albemarle's boat building and workforce training programs are linked to more than $100 million in revenue. Commercial fishing makes a $25 million annual economic impact. But the biggest splash is made by tourists who flock to the sand and surf.

The N.C. Department of Commerce says tourists spent about $1.1 billion and supported more than 13,000 jobs in Dare County in 2016. Many come to see three of the state's most popular attractions: Cape Hatteras National Seashore, Wright Brothers National Memorial and Fort Raleigh National Historic Site. "We've got a good and vibrant economy here, and we've got elected officials who try to preserve it," says Dare County Manager and Attorney Robert Outten. "People have choices, and we have to give them a reason to choose the Outer Banks. Tools have been available to protect the shoreline such as beach nourishment. We've been putting sand on the beaches and putting money aside for future...